The International 2024. Открытые квалификации · BO3
result vs predictionTtamsmewin 2:1
series probability
54%46%
probability at match start · final 2:1
YYarikSoloWInloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
tamsme
No games played over 6 months.
YarikSoloWIn
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Crystal Maiden
480 picks · 224 bans
Tiny
452 picks · 742 bans
Centaur Warrunner
427 picks · 627 bans
Gyrocopter
426 picks · 410 bans
Batrider
404 picks · 745 bans
Rubick
379 picks · 164 bans
Dragon Knight
352 picks · 1027 bans
Pangolier
350 picks · 731 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)40% vs 50%
Hero pool strength50% tamsme
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total54% tamsme
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct
tamsme 54%YarikSoloWIn 46%
The model gave 54% on tamsme — the game was taken by tamsme.
Game 2prediction missed
tamsme 54%YarikSoloWIn 46%
The model gave 54% on tamsme — the game was taken by YarikSoloWIn.
Game 3prediction correct
tamsme 54%YarikSoloWIn 46%
The model gave 54% on tamsme — the game was taken by tamsme.
Model check result
Model favoritetamsme · 54%
Series resulttamsme 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3