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EPL Masters I. Play-In · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Aionwin 2:1
series probability
42%58%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Dandelionsloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Aion

Clockwerk
Clockwerkoften banned
xsvampire · 4 games
25%
Bane
Bane
Krinzhik · 3 games
33%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Mo13ei · 3 games
33%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
xsvampire · 2 games
0%
Mirana
Mirana
xsvampire · 2 games
0%
Alchemist
Alchemistoften banned
Retsu · 1 game
0%
Clinkz
Clinkzoften banned
Retsu · 1 game
0%
Dazzle
Dazzle
Krinzhik · 1 game
0%

Dandelions

Rubick
Rubick
SsaSpartan · 4 games
25%
Clockwerk
Clockwerkoften banned
SsaSpartan · 3 games
33%
Lina
Lina
Mo13ei · 3 games
0%
Snapfire
Snapfireoften banned
xn丶e · 3 games
33%
Dark Seer
Dark Seeroften banned
ChodΣX · 2 games
0%
Kez
Kezoften banned
Nande · 2 games
0%
Lion
Lion
Gilgir · 2 games
0%
Ringmaster
Ringmaster
Gilgir · 2 games
50%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
500 picks · 359 bans
54%
Rubick
Rubick
402 picks · 240 bans
46%
Tiny
Tiny
343 picks · 354 bans
50%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
336 picks · 631 bans
56%
Windranger
Windranger
321 picks · 235 bans
50%
Pangolier
Pangolier
307 picks · 405 bans
53%
Bane
Bane
290 picks · 275 bans
61%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spirit
287 picks · 307 bans
46%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)29% vs 30%
Hero pool strength52% Team Aion
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total58% Dandelions
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct32:44
Team Aion 46%Dandelions 54%
The model gave 54% on Dandelions — the game was taken by Dandelions in 52:19.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lina
LinaMo13ei
55% · 30 games60% · 12 games
SlarkNande
Slark
Mirana
Miranaxsvampire
51% · 40 games43% · 99 games
Snapfirexn丶e
Snapfire
Bane
BaneKrinzhik
54% · 199 games45% · 63 games
WarlockSsaSpartan
Warlock
49% · 95 games
RingmasterKyzko
Ringmaster
Game 2prediction missed51:40
Team Aion 44%Dandelions 56%
The model gave 56% on Dandelions — the game was taken by Team Aion in 1:03:33.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritMo13ei
49% · 308 games53% · 347 games
Puckxn丶e
Puck
Ringmaster
RingmasterKrinzhik
47% · 209 games48% · 181 game
MuertaNande
Muerta
Hoodwink
Hoodwinkxsvampire
57% · 411 games48% · 177 games
Shadow ShamanKyzko
Shadow Shaman
45% · 223 games
ClockwerkSsaSpartan
Clockwerk
Game 3prediction missed46:40
Team Aion 44%Dandelions 56%
The model gave 56% on Dandelions — the game was taken by Team Aion in 1:02:54.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritMo13ei
55% · 240 games60% · 19 games
Linaxn丶e
Lina
Dazzle
DazzleKrinzhik
51% · 86 games52% · 7 games
SpectreNande
Spectre
Dark Willow
Dark Willowxsvampire
31% · 115 games53% · 159 games
RingmasterKyzko
Ringmaster
55% · 256 games
HoodwinkSsaSpartan
Hoodwink
Model check result
Model favoriteDandelions · 58%
Series resultTeam Aion 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3