Pinnacle Cup: Malta Vibes #3 · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Aravawin 2:0series probability
23%77%
probability at match start · final 2:0
One Moveloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Arava
Pangolieroften banned
Askold · 4 games
Phoenixoften banned
Zayac · 3 games
Skywrath Mage
Zayac · 3 games
Beastmasteroften banned
Blizzy · 2 games
Brewmasteroften banned
Blizzy · 2 games
Earth Spiritoften banned
Zayac · 2 games
Tidehunteroften banned
Blizzy · 2 games
Warlock
Max · 2 games
One Move
Disruptor
Panto · 17 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
Ainkrad · 12 games
Rubick
Panto · 12 games
Mirana
Gilgir · 11 games
Pangolieroften banned
Ainkrad · 11 games
Techies
Gilgir · 11 games
Timbersawoften banned
AfterLife · 11 games
Batridersignature
Gilgir · 10 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
409 picks · 195 bans
Ember Spirit
320 picks · 470 bans
Techies
285 picks · 270 bans
Undying
285 picks · 468 bans
Morphling
269 picks · 510 bans
Batrider
264 picks · 457 bans
Storm Spirit
250 picks · 446 bans
Timbersaw
246 picks · 589 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)38% vs 53%
Hero pool strength51% Team Arava
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total77% One Move
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed30:8
Team Arava 35%One Move 65%
The model gave 65% on One Move — the game was taken by Team Arava in 32:52.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
PuckAskold
Naga Sirenv1olent-
DawnbreakerBlizzy
BrewmasterAfterLife
Nature's ProphetMax
Ember SpiritAinkrad
Dark WillowZayac
PhoenixPanto
53% · 22 games
Witch DoctorXakoda
Game 2prediction missed56:36
Team Arava 33%One Move 67%
The model gave 67% on One Move — the game was taken by Team Arava in 1:01:16.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
TinyAskold
Slarkv1olent-
Dark SeerBlizzy
EarthshakerAinkrad
WarlockMax
InvokerPanto
TuskZayac
BeastmasterAfterLife
53% · 269 games
DisruptorXakoda
Model check result
Model favoriteOne Move · 77%
Series resultTeam Arava 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2