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The Bali Major 2023 · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Asterloss 1:2
series probability
42%58%
probability at match start · final 1:2
9Pandaswin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Aster

Doom
Doomoften banned
Xxs · 28 games
57%
Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
BoBoKa · 28 games
64%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Xxs · 26 games
58%
Rubick
Rubick
Fantasy · 26 games
38%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
SumaiL · 25 games
64%
Disruptor
Disruptor
Fantasy · 24 games
46%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Xwy · 24 games
58%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Xwy · 20 games
70%

9Pandas

Techies
Techiesoften banned
Antares · 52 games
52%
Rubick
Rubick
Antares · 37 games
49%
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath Magesignature
Antares · 32 games
63%
Doom
Doomsignature
MieRo · 30 games
73%
Undying
Undyingsignature
Solo · 28 games
71%
Enigma
Enigmaoften banned
MieRo · 26 games
58%
Disruptor
Disruptor
Solo · 24 games
54%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
MieRo · 23 games
57%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Techies
Techies
670 picks · 700 bans
54%
Rubick
Rubick
627 picks · 439 bans
47%
Doom
Doom
567 picks · 1119 bans
53%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
481 picks · 1004 bans
49%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
472 picks · 1182 bans
56%
Disruptor
Disruptor
446 picks · 406 bans
50%
Enchantress
Enchantress
442 picks · 711 bans
48%
Batrider
Batrider
419 picks · 1137 bans
51%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)34% vs 44%
Hero pool strength52% 9Pandas
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total58% 9Pandas
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed27:21
Team Aster 45%9Pandas 55%
The model gave 55% on 9Pandas — the game was taken by Team Aster in 42:54.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritSumaiL
46% · 435 games50% · 392 games
MorphlingRAMZES666
Morphling
Drow Ranger
Drow RangerMonet
45% · 128 games54% · 286 games
Storm Spiritkiyotaka
Storm Spirit
Visage
VisageXxs
55% · 150 games51% · 347 games
BatriderAntares
Batrider
Rubick
RubickBoBoKa
43% · 553 games55% · 510 games
BeastmasterMieRo
Beastmaster
Clockwerk
ClockwerkFantasy
46% · 325 games55% · 56 games
Witch DoctorSolo
Witch Doctor
Game 2prediction correct18:33
Team Aster 44%9Pandas 56%
The model gave 56% on 9Pandas — the game was taken by 9Pandas in 43:49.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Drow Ranger
Drow RangerMonet
40% · 145 games53% · 169 games
AlchemistRAMZES666
Alchemist
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritSumaiL
49% · 520 games53% · 305 games
Storm Spiritkiyotaka
Storm Spirit
Doom
DoomXxs
48% · 361 game49% · 254 games
EnigmaMieRo
Enigma
Techies
TechiesBoBoKa
52% · 350 games51% · 747 games
RubickAntares
Rubick
Undying
UndyingFantasy
50% · 453 games54% · 354 games
SilencerSolo
Silencer
Game 3prediction correct12:24
Team Aster 45%9Pandas 55%
The model gave 55% on 9Pandas — the game was taken by 9Pandas in 43:29.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar Assassin
Templar AssassinSumaiL
55% · 154 games50% · 231 game
TerrorbladeRAMZES666
Terrorblade
Slark
SlarkMonet
47% · 143 games50% · 252 games
Storm Spiritkiyotaka
Storm Spirit
Mars
MarsXxs
47% · 96 games61% · 42 games
AxeMieRo
Axe
Enchantress
EnchantressBoBoKa
47% · 306 games54% · 452 games
UndyingSolo
Undying
Rubick
RubickFantasy
43% · 479 games50% · 201 game
Skywrath MageAntares
Skywrath Mage
Model check result
Model favorite9Pandas · 58%
Series result9Pandas 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3