Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 2 — Китай 1-й дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Asterloss 0:2series probability
60%40%
probability at match start · final 0:2
EHOMEwin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Aster
Abaddonsignature
LaNm · 21 game
Pucksignature
White丶Album · 20 games
Marssignature
Xxs · 16 games
Gyrocopter
LaNm · 13 games
Queen of Painsignature
White丶Album · 13 games
Nyx Assassinsignature
LaNm · 12 games
Troll Warlordoften banned
Monet · 12 games
Leshracsignature
White丶Album · 10 games
EHOME
Marsoften banned
Chalice · 20 games
Pucksignature
Xm · 19 games
Tusk
xNova · 18 games
Grimstrokeoften banned
Frisk · 13 games
Lunasignature
Frisk · 11 games
Earth Spiritsignature
xNova · 10 games
Juggernautsignature
Sylar · 9 games
Nature's Prophetsignature
Chalice · 9 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
404 picks · 997 bans
Mars
354 picks · 570 bans
Void Spirit
341 picks · 524 bans
Grimstroke
337 picks · 352 bans
Lion
328 picks · 178 bans
Death Prophet
323 picks · 699 bans
Tusk
304 picks · 222 bans
Earth Spirit
262 picks · 277 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)58% vs 63%
Hero pool strength51% Team Aster
Head-to-head2 – 0
Model total60% Team Aster
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed32:29
Team Aster 56%EHOME 44%
The model gave 56% on Team Aster — the game was taken by EHOME in 47:39.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
LeshracWhite丶Album
ClinkzSylar
MagnusMonet
RazorXm
BeastmasterXxs
Faceless VoidChalice
Treant ProtectorLaNm
SnapfireFrisk
LionBoBoKa
Ogre MagixNova
Game 2prediction missed29:31
Team Aster 57%EHOME 43%
The model gave 57% on Team Aster — the game was taken by EHOME in 42:50.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar AssassinWhite丶Album
Troll WarlordSylar
UrsaMonet
Chaos KnightChalice
MarsXxs
PuckXm
LionBoBoKa
Dark WillowFrisk
Treant ProtectorLaNm
Nyx AssassinxNova
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Aster · 60%
Series resultEHOME 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2