FMWH Dota2 Championship Season 3 · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Asterwin 2:0series probability
73%27%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Elephantloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Aster
Pucksignature
White丶Album · 10 games
Nyx Assassinsignature
LaNm · 8 games
Monkey Kingsignature
Monet · 7 games
Abaddonsignature
LaNm · 6 games
Gyrocoptersignature
Monet · 6 games
Queen of Painsignature
White丶Album · 6 games
Wraith Kingsignature
Monet · 6 games
Iooften banned
BoBoKa · 5 games
Elephant
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
382 picks · 847 bans
Void Spirit
359 picks · 507 bans
Mars
309 picks · 553 bans
Death Prophet
277 picks · 484 bans
Earth Spirit
274 picks · 234 bans
Rubick
253 picks · 154 bans
Keeper of the Light
238 picks · 515 bans
Wraith King
236 picks · 372 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)76% vs 50%
Hero pool strength64% Team Aster
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total73% Team Aster
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct40:15
Team Aster 73%Elephant 27%
The model gave 73% on Team Aster — the game was taken by Team Aster in 26:33.
Game 2prediction correct39:18
Team Aster 73%Elephant 27%
The model gave 73% on Team Aster — the game was taken by Team Aster in 32:55.
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Aster · 73%
Series resultTeam Aster 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2