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Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 2 — Китай 1-й дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Asterwin 2:1
series probability
72%28%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Elephantloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Aster

Abaddon
Abaddonsignature
LaNm · 22 games
68%
Puck
Pucksignature
White丶Album · 21 game
62%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Xxs · 17 games
59%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
LaNm · 13 games
54%
Leshrac
Leshracsignature
White丶Album · 13 games
62%
Queen of Pain
Queen of Painsignature
White丶Album · 13 games
69%
Treant Protector
Treant Protector
LaNm · 13 games
54%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassinsignature
LaNm · 12 games
67%

Elephant

No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
Puck
396 picks · 1010 bans
50%
Mars
Mars
369 picks · 605 bans
54%
Lion
Lion
367 picks · 190 bans
47%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
362 picks · 365 bans
49%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
317 picks · 506 bans
47%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
310 picks · 679 bans
54%
Tusk
Tusk
308 picks · 225 bans
51%
Snapfire
Snapfire
266 picks · 148 bans
50%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)55% vs 43%
Hero pool strength57% Team Aster
Head-to-head4 – 1
Model total72% Team Aster
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed13:24
Team Aster 72%Elephant 28%
The model gave 72% on Team Aster — the game was taken by Elephant in 35:37.
Game 2prediction correct33:15
Team Aster 72%Elephant 28%
The model gave 72% on Team Aster — the game was taken by Team Aster in 49:43.
Game 3prediction correct34:13
Team Aster 72%Elephant 28%
The model gave 72% on Team Aster — the game was taken by Team Aster in 36:08.
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Aster · 72%
Series resultTeam Aster 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3