DreamLeague Season 20 · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Asterloss 1:2series probability
13%87%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Gaimin Gladiatorswin 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Aster
Doomoften banned
Xxs · 28 games
Enchantresssignature
BoBoKa · 28 games
Beastmasteroften banned
Xxs · 25 games
Disruptor
Fantasy · 23 games
Storm Spiritsignature
SumaiL · 22 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
Xwy · 21 game
Rubick
Fantasy · 21 game
Tinysignature
Xwy · 21 game
Gaimin Gladiators
Rubicksignature
tOfu · 54 games
Pangoliersignature
Quinn · 36 games
Disruptorsignature
tOfu · 31 game
Undyingsignature
Seleri · 31 game
Ember Spiritsignature
Quinn · 29 games
Enchantresssignature
Seleri · 29 games
Leshracsignature
Quinn · 29 games
Beastmastersignature
Ace · 28 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
709 picks · 504 bans
Disruptor
573 picks · 508 bans
Doom
562 picks · 1092 bans
Beastmaster
543 picks · 1227 bans
Techies
543 picks · 596 bans
Ember Spirit
468 picks · 1044 bans
Pangolier
463 picks · 926 bans
Enchantress
457 picks · 659 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)33% vs 61%
Hero pool strength58% Gaimin Gladiators
Head-to-head0 – 3
Model total87% Gaimin Gladiators
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct9:15
Team Aster 25%Gaimin Gladiators 75%
The model gave 75% on Gaimin Gladiators — the game was taken by Gaimin Gladiators in 28:37.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
SlarkMonet
Morphlingdyrachyo
Primal BeastSumaiL
BeastmasterAce
AxeXxs
Queen of PainQuinn
RubickBoBoKa
EnchantressSeleri
PugnaFantasy
TechiestOfu
Game 2prediction missed41:27
Team Aster 26%Gaimin Gladiators 74%
The model gave 74% on Gaimin Gladiators — the game was taken by Team Aster in 1:04:48.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
MorphlingMonet
Templar AssassinQuinn
PuckSumaiL
Bloodseekerdyrachyo
Dark SeerXxs
BroodmotherAce
Spirit BreakerBoBoKa
RubickSeleri
UndyingFantasy
TechiestOfu
Game 3prediction correct25:29
Team Aster 25%Gaimin Gladiators 75%
The model gave 75% on Gaimin Gladiators — the game was taken by Gaimin Gladiators in 52:37.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar AssassinMonet
Faceless Voiddyrachyo
Storm SpiritSumaiL
LycanAce
TimbersawXxs
Queen of PainQuinn
SnapfireBoBoKa
UndyingSeleri
RubickFantasy
DisruptortOfu
Model check result
Model favoriteGaimin Gladiators · 87%
Series resultGaimin Gladiators 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3