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The Lima Major 2023 · BO2
result vs prediction
Team Asterwin 2:0
series probability
65%35%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Geek Famloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Aster

Tiny
Tiny
BoBoKa · 17 games
47%
Marci
Marcisignature
BoBoKa · 13 games
69%
Mars
Marssignature
Xxs · 11 games
64%
Snapfire
Snapfiresignature
BoBoKa · 11 games
64%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
Xwy · 10 games
60%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
Fantasy · 8 games
38%
Drow Ranger
Drow Rangersignature
Monet · 8 games
75%
Leshrac
Leshracsignature
Ori · 8 games
75%

Geek Fam

Rubick
Rubick
NARMAN · 19 games
58%
Snapfire
Snapfire
NARMAN · 13 games
46%
Marci
Marcisignature
Hishge · 12 games
67%
Tusk
Tusk
NARMAN · 12 games
58%
Undying
Undyingoften banned
ace12 · 12 games
58%
Broodmother
Broodmotheroften banned
423 · 9 games
33%
Batrider
Batridersignature
Force · 8 games
63%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Sancity · 8 games
38%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
728 picks · 463 bans
51%
Tusk
Tusk
608 picks · 552 bans
52%
Tiny
Tiny
571 picks · 457 bans
49%
Treant Protector
Treant Protector
514 picks · 569 bans
57%
Snapfire
Snapfire
397 picks · 230 bans
45%
Mirana
Mirana
394 picks · 387 bans
53%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
374 picks · 551 bans
55%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
371 picks · 575 bans
49%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)47% vs 59%
Hero pool strength52% Team Aster
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total65% Team Aster
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct25:18
Team Aster 60%Geek Fam 40%
The model gave 60% on Team Aster — the game was taken by Team Aster in 53:10.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lina
LinaMonet
54% · 219 games53% · 153 games
Naga SirenSkem
Naga Siren
Tusk
TuskXwy
49% · 465 games54% · 303 games
PangolierForce
Pangolier
Broodmother
BroodmotherXxs
49% · 193 games50% · 557 games
TinyNARMAN
Tiny
Lion
LionBoBoKa
47% · 60 games44% · 111 games
DisruptorRoddgeee
Disruptor
Enchantress
EnchantressFantasy
46% · 187 games
Game 2prediction correct17:18
Team Aster 58%Geek Fam 42%
The model gave 58% on Team Aster — the game was taken by Team Aster in 40:46.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Morphling
MorphlingMonet
53% · 155 games54% · 151 game
Nature's ProphetSkem
Nature's Prophet
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritXwy
54% · 108 games41% · 168 games
DoomForce
Doom
Beastmaster
BeastmasterXxs
49% · 209 games48% · 221 game
MarciNARMAN
Marci
Enchantress
EnchantressBoBoKa
47% · 190 games50% · 235 games
UndyingRoddgeee
Undying
Phoenix
PhoenixFantasy
54% · 113 games
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Aster · 65%
Series resultTeam Aster 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2