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DreamLeague Season 22. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Asterwin 2:0
series probability
74%26%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Go alongloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Aster

Lion
Lionsignature
Kaka · 18 games
61%
Snapfire
Snapfiresignature
SumaiL · 15 games
73%
Rubick
Rubicksignature
Kaka · 13 games
62%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
SumaiL · 11 games
55%
Faceless Void
Faceless Voidoften banned
Monet · 11 games
45%
Medusa
Medusasignature
Monet · 10 games
70%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
Fantasy · 9 games
100%
Batrider
Batridersignature
Kaka · 8 games
63%

Go along

Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Killa · 3 games
67%
Weaver
Weaveroften banned
TK · 3 games
33%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
TK · 2 games
100%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakeroften banned
Killa · 2 games
50%
Doom
Doomoften banned
Killa · 2 games
100%
Grimstroke
Grimstrokeoften banned
TK · 2 games
50%
Phoenix
Phoenixoften banned
TK · 2 games
50%
Brewmaster
Brewmasteroften banned
Killa · 1 game
0%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
264 picks · 432 bans
50%
Phoenix
Phoenix
246 picks · 382 bans
50%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
243 picks · 334 bans
53%
Tusk
Tusk
216 picks · 204 bans
47%
Muerta
Muerta
210 picks · 298 bans
48%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
204 picks · 100 bans
53%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
197 picks · 496 bans
52%
Pugna
Pugna
181 picks · 325 bans
57%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)43% vs 40%
Hero pool strength55% Team Aster
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total74% Team Aster
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct33:16
Team Aster 74%Go along 26%
The model gave 74% on Team Aster — the game was taken by Team Aster in 30:08.
Game 2prediction correct45:9
Team Aster 74%Go along 26%
The model gave 74% on Team Aster — the game was taken by Team Aster in 32:31.
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Aster · 74%
Series resultTeam Aster 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2