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Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 1 — Китай 1-й дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Asterwin 2:0
series probability
59%41%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Invictus Gamingloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Aster

Puck
Pucksignature
White丶Album · 9 games
67%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassinsignature
LaNm · 8 games
88%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingsignature
Monet · 6 games
83%
Abaddon
Abaddon
LaNm · 5 games
80%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
White丶Album · 4 games
75%
Phoenix
Phoenixoften banned
BoBoKa · 4 games
100%
Queen of Pain
Queen of Painoften banned
White丶Album · 4 games
75%
Wraith King
Wraith Kingoften banned
Monet · 4 games
100%

Invictus Gaming

No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
Puck
379 picks · 801 bans
51%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
354 picks · 479 bans
54%
Mars
Mars
302 picks · 530 bans
50%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
271 picks · 229 bans
50%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
268 picks · 433 bans
56%
Rubick
Rubick
249 picks · 148 bans
51%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Light
236 picks · 493 bans
54%
Wraith King
Wraith King
232 picks · 348 bans
56%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)79% vs 71%
Hero pool strength63% Team Aster
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total59% Team Aster
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct30:13
Team Aster 59%Invictus Gaming 41%
The model gave 59% on Team Aster — the game was taken by Team Aster in 33:31.
Game 2prediction correct23:17
Team Aster 59%Invictus Gaming 41%
The model gave 59% on Team Aster — the game was taken by Team Aster in 39:16.
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Aster · 59%
Series resultTeam Aster 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2