i-League 2021 · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Asterloss 1:2series probability
55%45%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Invictus Gamingwin 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Aster
Abaddonsignature
LaNm · 22 games
Pucksignature
White丶Album · 21 game
Marsoften banned
Xxs · 17 games
Gyrocopter
LaNm · 13 games
Queen of Painsignature
White丶Album · 13 games
Nyx Assassinsignature
LaNm · 12 games
Treant Protector
LaNm · 12 games
Troll Warlordoften banned
Monet · 12 games
Invictus Gaming
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
409 picks · 1012 bans
Mars
369 picks · 595 bans
Grimstroke
351 picks · 356 bans
Lion
350 picks · 181 bans
Void Spirit
331 picks · 527 bans
Death Prophet
328 picks · 705 bans
Tusk
308 picks · 227 bans
Earth Spirit
258 picks · 288 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)57% vs 59%
Hero pool strength57% Team Aster
Head-to-head4 – 1
Model total55% Team Aster
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed13:23
Team Aster 55%Invictus Gaming 45%
The model gave 55% on Team Aster — the game was taken by Invictus Gaming in 37:07.
Game 2prediction correct29:31
Team Aster 55%Invictus Gaming 45%
The model gave 55% on Team Aster — the game was taken by Team Aster in 43:21.
Game 3prediction missed16:34
Team Aster 55%Invictus Gaming 45%
The model gave 55% on Team Aster — the game was taken by Invictus Gaming in 32:16.
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Aster · 55%
Series resultInvictus Gaming 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3