Esports Shanghai Masters 2023 · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Asterloss 1:2series probability
30%70%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Invictus Gamingwin 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Aster
Rubick
Fantasy · 22 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
SumaiL · 21 game
Lion
Kaka · 19 games
Snapfiresignature
SumaiL · 19 games
Doomoften banned
Xxs · 15 games
Medusasignature
Monet · 15 games
Morphlingoften banned
Monet · 14 games
Timbersawoften banned
Xxs · 14 games
Invictus Gaming
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Grimstroke
274 picks · 374 bans
Dark Willow
241 picks · 113 bans
Treant Protector
217 picks · 486 bans
Muerta
212 picks · 316 bans
Phoenix
209 picks · 301 bans
Nature's Prophet
194 picks · 411 bans
Pangolier
187 picks · 351 bans
Kunkka
185 picks · 468 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)56% vs 73%
Hero pool strength50% Invictus Gaming
Head-to-head3 – 3
Model total70% Invictus Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed47:28
Team Aster 30%Invictus Gaming 70%
The model gave 70% on Invictus Gaming — the game was taken by Team Aster in 59:08.
Game 2prediction correct5:21
Team Aster 30%Invictus Gaming 70%
The model gave 70% on Invictus Gaming — the game was taken by Invictus Gaming in 24:59.
Game 3prediction correct16:32
Team Aster 30%Invictus Gaming 70%
The model gave 70% on Invictus Gaming — the game was taken by Invictus Gaming in 34:41.
Model check result
Model favoriteInvictus Gaming · 70%
Series resultInvictus Gaming 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3