Intel World Open Beijing · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Asterwin 2:1series probability
77%23%
probability at match start · final 2:1
LBZSloss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Aster
Lionsignature
BoBoKa · 15 games
Linasignature
White丶Album · 14 games
Marssignature
Xxs · 14 games
Pangolieroften banned
Xxs · 13 games
Grimstrokesignature
BoBoKa · 12 games
Leshracsignature
White丶Album · 11 games
Lichsignature
LaNm · 11 games
Monkey Kingsignature
Monet · 11 games
LBZS
Death Prophetoften banned
Shanks · 9 games
Night Stalkeroften banned
Molasses · 5 games
Iooften banned
CatYou · 4 games
Tusk
CatYou · 4 games
Leshracoften banned
Shanks · 3 games
Queen of Painoften banned
Shanks · 3 games
Kunkkaoften banned
Shanks · 2 games
Marsoften banned
Molasses · 2 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Bane
461 picks · 338 bans
Mars
433 picks · 615 bans
Queen of Pain
362 picks · 446 bans
Weaver
358 picks · 802 bans
Snapfire
346 picks · 188 bans
Kunkka
283 picks · 473 bans
Spirit Breaker
275 picks · 412 bans
Ember Spirit
252 picks · 343 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)53% vs 46%
Hero pool strength58% Team Aster
Head-to-head2 – 0
Model total77% Team Aster
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct37:8
Team Aster 65%LBZS 35%
The model gave 65% on Team Aster — the game was taken by Team Aster in 29:07.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Queen of PainOri
TidehunterMolasses
RazorMonet
KunkkaShanks
PangolierXxs
MiranaCatYou
SnapfireBoBoKa
BaneFantasy
Game 2prediction missed62:56
Team Aster 77%LBZS 23%
The model gave 77% on Team Aster — the game was taken by LBZS in 58:01.
Game 3prediction correct46:14
Team Aster 67%LBZS 33%
The model gave 67% on Team Aster — the game was taken by Team Aster in 32:49.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Wraith KingMonet
LinaShanks
Void SpiritOri
TidehunterMolasses
PangolierXxs
TuskCatYou
WeaverBoBoKa
BaneFantasy
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Aster · 77%
Series resultTeam Aster 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3