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ESL One Malaysia 2022. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Asterwin 2:0
series probability
84%16%
probability at match start · final 2:0
LBZSloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Aster

Tiny
Tinysignature
BoBoKa · 15 games
73%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Xxs · 14 games
57%
Grimstroke
Grimstrokesignature
Fantasy · 13 games
69%
Bane
Banesignature
Fantasy · 12 games
75%
Brewmaster
Brewmastersignature
Xxs · 11 games
73%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingoften banned
BoBoKa · 11 games
55%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
Ori · 9 games
67%
Puck
Pucksignature
Ori · 9 games
67%

LBZS

Tiny
Tiny
CatYou · 11 games
36%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
CatYou · 8 games
50%
Kunkka
Kunkkaoften banned
Shanks · 6 games
0%
Leshrac
Leshracoften banned
Shanks · 6 games
33%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
Shanks · 5 games
40%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
CatYou · 5 games
60%
Lina
Linaoften banned
Shanks · 4 games
25%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Shanks · 4 games
50%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
626 picks · 471 bans
51%
Puck
Puck
438 picks · 943 bans
56%
Snapfire
Snapfire
363 picks · 189 bans
51%
Mars
Mars
358 picks · 588 bans
47%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreaker
356 picks · 416 bans
46%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
338 picks · 459 bans
50%
Bane
Bane
317 picks · 196 bans
57%
Marci
Marci
306 picks · 617 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)67% vs 58%
Hero pool strength62% Team Aster
Head-to-head3 – 0
Model total84% Team Aster
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct
Team Aster 84%LBZS 16%
The model gave 84% on Team Aster — the game was taken by Team Aster.
Game 2prediction correct
Team Aster 84%LBZS 16%
The model gave 84% on Team Aster — the game was taken by Team Aster.
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Aster · 84%
Series resultTeam Aster 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2