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ESL One Malaysia 2022. Закрытые квалификации · BO5
result vs prediction
Team Asterwin 3:0
series probability
84%16%
probability at match start · final 3:0
LBZSloss 0:3
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Aster

Tiny
Tinysignature
BoBoKa · 15 games
73%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Xxs · 14 games
57%
Grimstroke
Grimstrokesignature
Fantasy · 13 games
69%
Bane
Banesignature
Fantasy · 12 games
75%
Brewmaster
Brewmastersignature
Xxs · 11 games
73%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingoften banned
BoBoKa · 11 games
55%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
Ori · 9 games
67%
Puck
Pucksignature
Ori · 9 games
67%

LBZS

Tiny
Tiny
CatYou · 13 games
46%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
CatYou · 8 games
50%
Leshrac
Leshracoften banned
Shanks · 7 games
43%
Kunkka
Kunkkaoften banned
Shanks · 6 games
0%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
Shanks · 5 games
40%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
CatYou · 5 games
60%
Lina
Linaoften banned
Shanks · 4 games
25%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Shanks · 4 games
50%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
631 picks · 476 bans
51%
Puck
Puck
444 picks · 952 bans
55%
Snapfire
Snapfire
366 picks · 189 bans
51%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreaker
362 picks · 428 bans
46%
Mars
Mars
351 picks · 588 bans
47%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
333 picks · 453 bans
50%
Marci
Marci
312 picks · 627 bans
52%
Bane
Bane
311 picks · 194 bans
57%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)68% vs 57%
Hero pool strength60% Team Aster
Head-to-head4 – 0
Model total84% Team Aster
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct26:12
Team Aster 70%LBZS 30%
The model gave 70% on Team Aster — the game was taken by Team Aster in 33:26.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Alchemist
AlchemistMonet
49% · 34 games53% · 31 game
NecrophosShanks
Necrophos
Razor
RazorXxs
51% · 73 games51% · 168 games
TinyCatYou
Tiny
Batrider
BatriderOri
45% · 48 games
Pudge
PudgeBoBoKa
49% · 23 games
Dazzle
DazzleFantasy
52% · 21 game
Game 2prediction correct39:26
Team Aster 71%LBZS 29%
The model gave 71% on Team Aster — the game was taken by Team Aster in 40:22.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Bloodseeker
BloodseekerMonet
49% · 25 games45% · 88 games
ZeusShanks
Zeus
Razor
RazorXxs
48% · 44 games47% · 111 games
MarciCatYou
Marci
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritOri
50% · 8 games
Monkey King
Monkey KingBoBoKa
62% · 63 games
Winter Wyvern
Winter WyvernFantasy
57% · 59 games
Game 3prediction correct27:8
Team Aster 72%LBZS 28%
The model gave 72% on Team Aster — the game was taken by Team Aster in 22:59.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Faceless Void
Faceless VoidMonet
52% · 57 games38% · 99 games
ZeusShanks
Zeus
Puck
PuckOri
49% · 134 games49% · 290 games
TinyCatYou
Tiny
Brewmaster
BrewmasterXxs
57% · 38 games
Monkey King
Monkey KingBoBoKa
57% · 125 games
Dazzle
DazzleFantasy
64% · 35 games
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Aster · 84%
Series resultTeam Aster 3:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game3 of 3