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Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022: Season 3 — Китай · BO1
result vs prediction
Team Asterwin 1:0
series probability
46%54%
probability at match start · final 1:0
LGD Gamingloss 0:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Aster

Bane
Banesignature
Fantasy · 24 games
75%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Xxs · 19 games
63%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingsignature
BoBoKa · 18 games
61%
Grimstroke
Grimstrokesignature
Fantasy · 17 games
65%
Snapfire
Snapfire
Fantasy · 17 games
53%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Xxs · 16 games
44%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Monet · 15 games
67%
Io
Iosignature
BoBoKa · 13 games
85%

LGD Gaming

Bane
Bane
y` · 12 games
50%
Kunkka
Kunkkaoften banned
NothingToSay · 11 games
55%
Tidehunter
Tidehuntersignature
y` · 11 games
82%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinsignature
Ame · 10 games
70%
Doom
Doomsignature
Faith_bian · 9 games
67%
Grimstroke
Grimstrokesignature
y` · 9 games
78%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingsignature
Ame · 9 games
89%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetsignature
Faith_bian · 8 games
63%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
589 picks · 450 bans
50%
Mars
Mars
409 picks · 627 bans
46%
Puck
Puck
406 picks · 859 bans
54%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
389 picks · 497 bans
50%
Bane
Bane
361 picks · 239 bans
57%
Snapfire
Snapfire
340 picks · 170 bans
49%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
324 picks · 602 bans
47%
Pangolier
Pangolier
302 picks · 523 bans
51%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)58% vs 61%
Hero pool strength50% LGD Gaming
Head-to-head4 – 5
Model total54% LGD Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed30:18
Team Aster 45%LGD Gaming 55%
The model gave 55% on LGD Gaming — the game was taken by Team Aster in 42:57.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Razor
RazorOri
46% · 153 games53% · 72 games
Faceless VoidAme
Faceless Void
Spectre
SpectreMonet
57% · 27 games57% · 118 games
Queen of PainNothingToSay
Queen of Pain
Enigma
EnigmaXxs
60% · 53 games37% · 143 games
DawnbreakerFaith_bian
Dawnbreaker
Tiny
TinyBoBoKa
44% · 235 games52% · 49 games
Warlocky`
Warlock
Dazzle
DazzleFantasy
52% · 14 games57% · 100 games
Shadow ShamanXinQ
Shadow Shaman
Model check result
Model favoriteLGD Gaming · 54%
Series resultTeam Aster 1:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 1