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Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 1. Китай. Первый дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Asterloss 0:2
series probability
54%46%
probability at match start · final 0:2
LGD Gamingwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Aster

Tiny
Tinysignature
BoBoKa · 31 game
61%
Dazzle
Dazzlesignature
Fantasy · 15 games
80%
Puck
Pucksignature
Ori · 15 games
60%
Mars
Marssignature
Xxs · 14 games
71%
Marci
Marcisignature
BoBoKa · 13 games
62%
Snapfire
Snapfiresignature
BoBoKa · 13 games
62%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
Ori · 11 games
64%
Enigma
Enigmasignature
Xxs · 10 games
60%

LGD Gaming

Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
NothingToSay · 14 games
79%
Tiny
Tinysignature
XinQ · 13 games
77%
Chen
Chensignature
y` · 11 games
91%
Dazzle
Dazzlesignature
y` · 9 games
78%
Phoenix
Phoenixsignature
y` · 9 games
89%
Razor
Razorsignature
Faith_bian · 9 games
78%
Tusk
Tuskoften banned
XinQ · 9 games
44%
Earthshaker
Earthshakersignature
XinQ · 8 games
88%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tusk
Tusk
426 picks · 433 bans
54%
Rubick
Rubick
418 picks · 280 bans
55%
Tiny
Tiny
412 picks · 389 bans
50%
Mirana
Mirana
312 picks · 318 bans
53%
Treant Protector
Treant Protector
275 picks · 329 bans
56%
Snapfire
Snapfire
250 picks · 133 bans
48%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
228 picks · 594 bans
52%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
223 picks · 157 bans
49%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)73% vs 73%
Hero pool strength57% LGD Gaming
Head-to-head4 – 3
Model total54% Team Aster
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed9:21
Team Aster 53%LGD Gaming 47%
The model gave 53% on Team Aster — the game was taken by LGD Gaming in 38:28.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ursa
UrsaMonet
47% · 53 games48% · 94 games
Wraith Kingshiro
Wraith King
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritXwy
42% · 245 games54% · 344 games
PangolierNothingToSay
Pangolier
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur WarrunnerXxs
51% · 36 games54% · 135 games
Skywrath MagepLAnet
Skywrath Mage
Rubick
RubickBoBoKa
51% · 177 games49% · 134 games
Silencery`
Silencer
Mirana
MiranaFantasy
52% · 196 games
Game 2prediction missed11:20
Team Aster 52%LGD Gaming 48%
The model gave 52% on Team Aster — the game was taken by LGD Gaming in 35:17.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lifestealer
LifestealerMonet
49% · 56 games53% · 76 games
Drow Rangershiro
Drow Ranger
Death Prophet
Death ProphetXwy
55% · 204 games45% · 128 games
Void SpiritNothingToSay
Void Spirit
Pangolier
PangolierXxs
53% · 211 games49% · 141 game
Keeper of the LightpLAnet
Keeper of the Light
Shadow Demon
Shadow DemonBoBoKa
52% · 67 games49% · 271 game
Baney`
Bane
Disruptor
DisruptorFantasy
45% · 78 games
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Aster · 54%
Series resultLGD Gaming 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2