Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 2. Китай. Первый дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Asterwin 2:0series probability
89%11%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Limitloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Aster
Tinysignature
BoBoKa · 18 games
Snapfire
BoBoKa · 14 games
Marcisignature
BoBoKa · 13 games
Ember Spiritsignature
Xwy · 12 games
Treant Protectoroften banned
Fantasy · 12 games
Drow Rangersignature
Monet · 11 games
Phoenixsignature
Fantasy · 10 games
Marssignature
Xxs · 9 games
Limit
Tusksignature
Yds · 18 games
Tinysignature
Yds · 9 games
Treant Protectorsignature
Victoria · 9 games
Death Prophetsignature
Srf · 8 games
Lichsignature
Victoria · 7 games
Nature's Prophetsignature
Srf · 7 games
Silencer
Victoria · 7 games
Doomoften banned
Srf · 6 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
765 picks · 498 bans
Tiny
544 picks · 392 bans
Tusk
540 picks · 443 bans
Treant Protector
532 picks · 579 bans
Nature's Prophet
414 picks · 627 bans
Snapfire
394 picks · 275 bans
Death Prophet
381 picks · 676 bans
Ember Spirit
359 picks · 770 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 63%
Hero pool strength56% Limit
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total89% Team Aster
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct23:12
Team Aster 75%Limit 25%
The model gave 75% on Team Aster — the game was taken by Team Aster in 19:02.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Chaos KnightMonet
Shadow FiendKry
Storm SpiritXwy
TuskChosenone
BeastmasterXxs
Mars冷鸟
EnchantressBoBoKa
Rubickcxk
GyrocopterFantasy
Clockwerk出省
Game 2prediction correct30:9
Team Aster 73%Limit 27%
The model gave 73% on Team Aster — the game was taken by Team Aster in 22:55.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Monkey KingMonet
JuggernautKry
Shadow FiendXwy
LeshracChosenone
EnigmaXxs
Death Prophet冷鸟
RubickFantasy
Tuskcxk
TinyBoBoKa
Silencer出省
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Aster · 89%
Series resultTeam Aster 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2