i-League 2021 · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Asterwin 2:0series probability
58%42%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Royal Never Give Uploss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Aster
Marssignature
Xxs · 14 games
Abaddon
LaNm · 13 games
Pucksignature
White丶Album · 13 games
Queen of Painsignature
White丶Album · 13 games
Gyrocopter
LaNm · 12 games
Monkey Kingsignature
Monet · 10 games
Nyx Assassinsignature
LaNm · 10 games
Troll Warlordoften banned
Monet · 9 games
Royal Never Give Up
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
438 picks · 980 bans
Void Spirit
406 picks · 570 bans
Death Prophet
366 picks · 707 bans
Mars
350 picks · 587 bans
Earth Spirit
308 picks · 300 bans
Grimstroke
307 picks · 293 bans
Tusk
301 picks · 206 bans
Lion
256 picks · 138 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)52% vs 65%
Hero pool strength55% Team Aster
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total58% Team Aster
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct31:7
Team Aster 58%Royal Never Give Up 42%
The model gave 58% on Team Aster — the game was taken by Team Aster in 29:32.
Game 2prediction correct21:3
Team Aster 58%Royal Never Give Up 42%
The model gave 58% on Team Aster — the game was taken by Team Aster in 18:28.
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Aster · 58%
Series resultTeam Aster 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2