?
arrow_backBack to match
Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 2 — Китай 1-й дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Asterwin 2:1
series probability
73%27%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Royal Never Give Uploss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Aster

Abaddon
Abaddonsignature
LaNm · 19 games
63%
Puck
Pucksignature
White丶Album · 18 games
61%
Mars
Marssignature
Xxs · 14 games
64%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
LaNm · 13 games
54%
Queen of Pain
Queen of Painsignature
White丶Album · 13 games
69%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassinsignature
LaNm · 12 games
67%
Troll Warlord
Troll Warlordoften banned
Monet · 12 games
42%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingsignature
Monet · 10 games
80%

Royal Never Give Up

No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
Puck
404 picks · 991 bans
49%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
356 picks · 528 bans
50%
Mars
Mars
350 picks · 570 bans
54%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
338 picks · 335 bans
49%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
337 picks · 701 bans
54%
Lion
Lion
315 picks · 173 bans
48%
Tusk
Tusk
304 picks · 229 bans
52%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
269 picks · 281 bans
51%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)56% vs 50%
Hero pool strength58% Team Aster
Head-to-head2 – 0
Model total73% Team Aster
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed30:29
Team Aster 73%Royal Never Give Up 27%
The model gave 73% on Team Aster — the game was taken by Royal Never Give Up in 50:39.
Game 2prediction correct15:5
Team Aster 73%Royal Never Give Up 27%
The model gave 73% on Team Aster — the game was taken by Team Aster in 34:37.
Game 3prediction correct28:17
Team Aster 73%Royal Never Give Up 27%
The model gave 73% on Team Aster — the game was taken by Team Aster in 1:03:03.
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Aster · 73%
Series resultTeam Aster 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3