SAPPHIRE OGA Dota PIT China Season 6 · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Asterwin 2:1series probability
51%49%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Royal Never Give Uploss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Aster
Snapfire
Fantasy · 23 games
Banesignature
Fantasy · 21 game
Marsoften banned
Xxs · 20 games
Monkey Kingsignature
BoBoKa · 20 games
Queen of Painoften banned
Ori · 20 games
Pangolieroften banned
Xxs · 17 games
Iosignature
BoBoKa · 16 games
Grimstrokesignature
Fantasy · 14 games
Royal Never Give Up
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Bane
544 picks · 368 bans
Queen of Pain
477 picks · 570 bans
Mars
445 picks · 600 bans
Weaver
424 picks · 777 bans
Snapfire
364 picks · 175 bans
Kunkka
344 picks · 543 bans
Spirit Breaker
342 picks · 571 bans
Wraith King
286 picks · 347 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)58% vs 61%
Hero pool strength56% Team Aster
Head-to-head6 – 4
Model total51% Team Aster
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed11:25
Team Aster 51%Royal Never Give Up 49%
The model gave 51% on Team Aster — the game was taken by Royal Never Give Up in 31:49.
Game 2prediction correct28:8
Team Aster 51%Royal Never Give Up 49%
The model gave 51% on Team Aster — the game was taken by Team Aster in 31:14.
Game 3prediction correct28:17
Team Aster 51%Royal Never Give Up 49%
The model gave 51% on Team Aster — the game was taken by Team Aster in 29:24.
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Aster · 51%
Series resultTeam Aster 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3