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Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022: Season 2 — Китай · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Asterwin 2:0
series probability
48%52%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Royal Never Give Uploss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Aster

Bane
Banesignature
Fantasy · 25 games
76%
Grimstroke
Grimstrokesignature
Fantasy · 22 games
64%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Xxs · 22 games
55%
Snapfire
Snapfiresignature
Fantasy · 20 games
60%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingoften banned
BoBoKa · 17 games
59%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Xxs · 17 games
71%
Queen of Pain
Queen of Painoften banned
Ori · 16 games
50%
Io
Iosignature
BoBoKa · 13 games
85%

Royal Never Give Up

No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Bane
Bane
457 picks · 263 bans
56%
Mars
Mars
401 picks · 563 bans
54%
Tiny
Tiny
339 picks · 389 bans
51%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
331 picks · 659 bans
53%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
291 picks · 429 bans
53%
Weaver
Weaver
290 picks · 354 bans
52%
Sand King
Sand King
286 picks · 358 bans
53%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassin
265 picks · 559 bans
55%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)58% vs 58%
Hero pool strength58% Team Aster
Head-to-head7 – 4
Model total52% Royal Never Give Up
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed32:18
Team Aster 48%Royal Never Give Up 52%
The model gave 52% on Royal Never Give Up — the game was taken by Team Aster in 35:18.
Game 2prediction missed26:23
Team Aster 48%Royal Never Give Up 52%
The model gave 52% on Royal Never Give Up — the game was taken by Team Aster in 36:35.
Model check result
Model favoriteRoyal Never Give Up · 52%
Series resultTeam Aster 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2