OGA Dota PIT Season 5. Китай · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Asterwin 2:0series probability
85%15%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Sparking Arrow Gamingloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Aster
Abaddonsignature
LaNm · 21 game
Puckoften banned
White丶Album · 21 game
Marsoften banned
Xxs · 19 games
Leshracsignature
White丶Album · 16 games
Treant Protector
LaNm · 15 games
Gyrocopter
LaNm · 13 games
Troll Warlordoften banned
Monet · 13 games
Axesignature
Xxs · 12 games
Sparking Arrow Gaming
Elder Titan
XCJ · 8 games
Phoenix
XCJ · 8 games
Pangolieroften banned
September · 7 games
Shadow Shaman
September · 7 games
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Son GoKu · 6 games
Tidehunteroften banned
Son GoKu · 5 games
Ancient Apparitionoften banned
XCJ · 4 games
Axeoften banned
Son GoKu · 4 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
425 picks · 172 bans
Ancient Apparition
313 picks · 474 bans
Nyx Assassin
308 picks · 615 bans
Puck
304 picks · 691 bans
Mars
296 picks · 518 bans
Hoodwink
279 picks · 117 bans
Lina
259 picks · 338 bans
Dragon Knight
256 picks · 320 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)55% vs 30%
Hero pool strength58% Team Aster
Head-to-head2 – 0
Model total85% Team Aster
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct13:34
Team Aster 85%Sparking Arrow Gaming 15%
The model gave 85% on Team Aster — the game was taken by Team Aster in 39:28.
Game 2prediction correct11:30
Team Aster 85%Sparking Arrow Gaming 15%
The model gave 85% on Team Aster — the game was taken by Team Aster in 32:11.
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Aster · 85%
Series resultTeam Aster 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2