The International 10 (2021) · BO2
result vs prediction
Team Asterloss 0:2series probability
62%38%
probability at match start · final 0:2
T1win 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Aster
Leshracsignature
White丶Album · 20 games
Lion
BoBoKa · 16 games
Axesignature
Xxs · 15 games
Puckoften banned
White丶Album · 15 games
Treant Protector
LaNm · 13 games
Abaddonsignature
LaNm · 12 games
Magnussignature
White丶Album · 12 games
Storm Spiritoften banned
White丶Album · 12 games
T1
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
297 picks · 176 bans
Mars
286 picks · 396 bans
Lina
277 picks · 542 bans
Pangolier
257 picks · 372 bans
Hoodwink
254 picks · 88 bans
Shadow Demon
244 picks · 256 bans
Tidehunter
227 picks · 382 bans
Luna
224 picks · 318 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)63% vs 43%
Hero pool strength57% Team Aster
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total62% Team Aster
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed26:22
Team Aster 62%T1 38%
The model gave 62% on Team Aster — the game was taken by T1 in 48:34.
Game 2prediction missed20:28
Team Aster 62%T1 38%
The model gave 62% on Team Aster — the game was taken by T1 in 50:31.
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Aster · 62%
Series resultT1 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2