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ESL One Berlin Major 2023 · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Asterloss 0:2
series probability
21%79%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Team Liquidwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Aster

Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
BoBoKa · 22 games
68%
Tiny
Tinysignature
BoBoKa · 21 game
67%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
Xxs · 18 games
61%
Disruptor
Disruptor
Fantasy · 18 games
56%
Rubick
Rubick
Fantasy · 18 games
39%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
Xwy · 17 games
65%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
Xwy · 16 games
63%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetoften banned
Xxs · 14 games
29%

Team Liquid

Rubick
Rubicksignature
Boxi · 32 games
78%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetsignature
miCKe · 20 games
80%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Nisha · 20 games
80%
Tusk
Tusksignature
Nisha · 20 games
70%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maidensignature
iNSaNiA · 18 games
78%
Disruptor
Disruptorsignature
iNSaNiA · 17 games
82%
Treant Protector
Treant Protectorsignature
iNSaNiA · 17 games
88%
Mirana
Miranasignature
iNSaNiA · 15 games
80%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
932 picks · 687 bans
48%
Disruptor
Disruptor
581 picks · 440 bans
54%
Tiny
Tiny
564 picks · 430 bans
51%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
518 picks · 827 bans
53%
Snapfire
Snapfire
474 picks · 342 bans
45%
Tusk
Tusk
474 picks · 339 bans
48%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
471 picks · 1111 bans
56%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
464 picks · 1042 bans
49%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)38% vs 64%
Hero pool strength61% Team Liquid
Head-to-head1 – 2
Model total79% Team Liquid
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct26:31
Team Aster 33%Team Liquid 67%
The model gave 67% on Team Liquid — the game was taken by Team Liquid in 54:48.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Slark
SlarkMonet
51% · 83 games49% · 64 games
Void SpiritNisha
Void Spirit
Mirana
MiranaSumaiL
52% · 228 games56% · 181 game
Monkey KingmiCKe
Monkey King
Underlord
UnderlordXxs
45% · 74 games50% · 280 games
Beastmasterzai
Beastmaster
Pugna
PugnaBoBoKa
55% · 48 games48% · 69 games
TechiesBoxi
Techies
Disruptor
DisruptorFantasy
43% · 182 games52% · 21 game
OracleiNSaNiA
Oracle
Game 2prediction correct12:29
Team Aster 35%Team Liquid 65%
The model gave 65% on Team Liquid — the game was taken by Team Liquid in 35:31.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Terrorblade
TerrorbladeMonet
58% · 123 games52% · 91 game
AlchemistmiCKe
Alchemist
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the LightSumaiL
52% · 109 games40% · 57 games
Queen of PainNisha
Queen of Pain
Axe
AxeXxs
48% · 9 games46% · 69 games
Underlordzai
Underlord
Bounty Hunter
Bounty HunterBoBoKa
52% · 30 games41% · 46 games
LichiNSaNiA
Lich
Crystal Maiden
Crystal MaidenFantasy
56% · 180 games47% · 188 games
DisruptorBoxi
Disruptor
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Liquid · 79%
Series resultTeam Liquid 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2