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Riyadh Masters 2023 · BO2
result vs prediction
Team Asterloss 1:1
series probability
42%58%
probability at match start · final 1:1
Team Liquidloss 1:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Aster

Rubick
Rubick
Fantasy · 30 games
47%
Doom
Doomoften banned
Xxs · 28 games
57%
Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
BoBoKa · 28 games
61%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
SumaiL · 28 games
68%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Xxs · 26 games
58%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
SumaiL · 25 games
56%
Disruptor
Disruptor
Fantasy · 22 games
45%
Snapfire
Snapfire
SumaiL · 21 game
48%

Team Liquid

Rubick
Rubicksignature
Boxi · 34 games
68%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
Nisha · 25 games
72%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Nisha · 25 games
68%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maidensignature
iNSaNiA · 24 games
79%
Disruptor
Disruptorsignature
iNSaNiA · 23 games
78%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
Nisha · 22 games
68%
Undying
Undyingoften banned
iNSaNiA · 22 games
59%
Bloodseeker
Bloodseekersignature
miCKe · 21 game
67%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Techies
Techies
638 picks · 691 bans
54%
Rubick
Rubick
499 picks · 329 bans
47%
Doom
Doom
452 picks · 978 bans
55%
Batrider
Batrider
403 picks · 930 bans
51%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
400 picks · 857 bans
48%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
393 picks · 353 bans
55%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
382 picks · 1012 bans
56%
Pugna
Pugna
380 picks · 448 bans
54%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)42% vs 49%
Hero pool strength58% Team Liquid
Head-to-head2 – 4
Model total58% Team Liquid
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed28:25
Team Aster 47%Team Liquid 53%
The model gave 53% on Team Liquid — the game was taken by Team Aster in 42:43.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Medusa
MedusaMonet
65% · 186 games45% · 200 games
Timbersawzai
Timbersaw
Snapfire
SnapfireSumaiL
47% · 465 games47% · 156 games
Templar AssassinmiCKe
Templar Assassin
Tidehunter
TidehunterXxs
49% · 186 games44% · 125 games
WindrangerNisha
Windranger
Shadow Demon
Shadow DemonKaka
55% · 188 games47% · 314 games
BatriderBoxi
Batrider
Clockwerk
ClockwerkFantasy
53% · 359 games47% · 589 games
RubickiNSaNiA
Rubick
Game 2prediction correct12:20
Team Aster 44%Team Liquid 56%
The model gave 56% on Team Liquid — the game was taken by Team Liquid in 41:30.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritSumaiL
51% · 498 games57% · 140 games
Faceless VoidmiCKe
Faceless Void
Slark
SlarkMonet
48% · 249 games55% · 286 games
Broodmotherzai
Broodmother
Mars
MarsXxs
43% · 238 games53% · 421 game
PangolierNisha
Pangolier
Snapfire
SnapfireKaka
45% · 464 games49% · 672 games
RubickBoxi
Rubick
Lich
LichFantasy
49% · 128 games49% · 58 games
Elder TitaniNSaNiA
Elder Titan
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Liquid · 58%
Accuracy by game1 of 2