SAPPHIRE OGA Dota PIT China Season 6 · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Asterloss 0:2series probability
79%21%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Team MagMawin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Aster
Snapfire
Fantasy · 22 games
Banesignature
Fantasy · 19 games
Pangolieroften banned
Xxs · 19 games
Marsoften banned
Xxs · 18 games
Monkey Kingsignature
Monet · 18 games
Queen of Painoften banned
Ori · 18 games
Iosignature
BoBoKa · 16 games
Linasignature
Ori · 14 games
Team MagMa
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Bane
549 picks · 384 bans
Queen of Pain
460 picks · 560 bans
Mars
446 picks · 632 bans
Weaver
430 picks · 819 bans
Snapfire
359 picks · 180 bans
Spirit Breaker
342 picks · 564 bans
Kunkka
341 picks · 535 bans
Wraith King
278 picks · 328 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)57% vs 47%
Hero pool strength56% Team Aster
Head-to-head3 – 1
Model total79% Team Aster
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed19:45
Team Aster 79%Team MagMa 21%
The model gave 79% on Team Aster — the game was taken by Team MagMa in 45:40.
Game 2prediction missed28:23
Team Aster 79%Team MagMa 21%
The model gave 79% on Team Aster — the game was taken by Team MagMa in 36:44.
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Aster · 79%
Series resultTeam MagMa 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2