Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022: Season 2 — Китай · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Asterwin 2:0series probability
76%24%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Team MagMaloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Aster
Marsoften banned
Xxs · 22 games
Banesignature
Fantasy · 21 game
Snapfiresignature
Fantasy · 20 games
Grimstrokesignature
Fantasy · 18 games
Monkey Kingoften banned
BoBoKa · 17 games
Pangoliersignature
Xxs · 16 games
Queen of Painoften banned
Ori · 16 games
Iosignature
BoBoKa · 13 games
Team MagMa
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Bane
440 picks · 267 bans
Mars
396 picks · 542 bans
Death Prophet
311 picks · 603 bans
Weaver
311 picks · 399 bans
Tiny
308 picks · 351 bans
Queen of Pain
279 picks · 455 bans
Ember Spirit
278 picks · 391 bans
Kunkka
264 picks · 480 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)63% vs 38%
Hero pool strength58% Team Aster
Head-to-head2 – 3
Model total76% Team Aster
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct35:22
Team Aster 76%Team MagMa 24%
The model gave 76% on Team Aster — the game was taken by Team Aster in 46:19.
Game 2prediction correct30:10
Team Aster 76%Team MagMa 24%
The model gave 76% on Team Aster — the game was taken by Team Aster in 23:01.
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Aster · 76%
Series resultTeam Aster 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2