ESL One Malaysia 2022 · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Asterwin 2:0series probability
71%29%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Team Secretloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Aster
Tinysignature
BoBoKa · 31 game
Dazzlesignature
Fantasy · 18 games
Pucksignature
Ori · 17 games
Brewmastersignature
Xxs · 15 games
Grimstrokesignature
Fantasy · 15 games
Storm Spiritsignature
Ori · 13 games
Winter Wyvernsignature
Fantasy · 13 games
Faceless Voidsignature
Monet · 12 games
Team Secret
Chensignature
Puppey · 12 games
Clockwerksignature
Puppey · 12 games
Timbersawoften banned
Nisha · 11 games
Doomsignature
Zayac · 10 games
Monkey Kingsignature
Crystallis · 10 games
Zeussignature
Nisha · 10 games
Ember Spiritsignature
Nisha · 9 games
Razoroften banned
Crystallis · 9 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
733 picks · 567 bans
Puck
520 picks · 1050 bans
Dawnbreaker
469 picks · 616 bans
Marci
432 picks · 773 bans
Winter Wyvern
369 picks · 406 bans
Snapfire
360 picks · 181 bans
Zeus
325 picks · 376 bans
Razor
324 picks · 616 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)63% vs 52%
Hero pool strength54% Team Aster
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total71% Team Aster
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct25:18
Team Aster 62%Team Secret 38%
The model gave 62% on Team Aster — the game was taken by Team Aster in 30:34.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
LunaMonet
Ember SpiritNisha
EnigmaXxs
Monkey KingCrystallis
Storm SpiritOri
BatriderResolut1on
AbaddonFantasy
EarthshakerZayac
TinyBoBoKa
Dark WillowPuppey
Game 2prediction correct40:15
Team Aster 60%Team Secret 40%
The model gave 60% on Team Aster — the game was taken by Team Aster in 40:46.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Phantom AssassinMonet
TerrorbladeCrystallis
PuckOri
KunkkaNisha
MarsXxs
EnigmaResolut1on
HoodwinkBoBoKa
Crystal MaidenPuppey
Winter WyvernFantasy
TuskZayac
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Aster · 71%
Series resultTeam Aster 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2