The International 2023 — Квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Asterwin 2:0series probability
77%23%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Team Zeroloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Aster
Rubick
Fantasy · 34 games
Storm Spiritsignature
SumaiL · 30 games
Doomoften banned
Xxs · 28 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
SumaiL · 28 games
Enchantresssignature
BoBoKa · 28 games
Snapfireoften banned
SumaiL · 28 games
Beastmasteroften banned
Xxs · 26 games
Clockwerksignature
Fantasy · 22 games
Team Zero
Spirit Breakersignature
zzq · 6 games
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
iceice · 5 games
Pangolieroften banned
7e · 5 games
Techiesoften banned
iceice · 5 games
Timbersawoften banned
7e · 5 games
Void Spirit
7e · 5 games
Windrangeroften banned
Cty · 5 games
Enchantressoften banned
zzq · 4 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Techies
607 picks · 644 bans
Rubick
471 picks · 263 bans
Batrider
425 picks · 856 bans
Spirit Breaker
384 picks · 390 bans
Ember Spirit
374 picks · 756 bans
Doom
353 picks · 803 bans
Timbersaw
346 picks · 863 bans
Pugna
344 picks · 398 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)41% vs 71%
Hero pool strength56% Team Zero
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total77% Team Aster
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct25:11
Team Aster 65%Team Zero 35%
The model gave 65% on Team Aster — the game was taken by Team Aster in 24:26.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
GyrocopterMonet
RazorCty
Ember SpiritSumaiL
Earth Spirit7e
TimbersawXxs
Primal BeastBEYOND
Nature's ProphetKaka
Alchemistzzq
MiranaFantasy
Grimstrokeiceice
Game 2prediction correct32:10
Team Aster 62%Team Zero 38%
The model gave 62% on Team Aster — the game was taken by Team Aster in 32:34.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
MorphlingMonet
GyrocopterCty
PangolierSumaiL
Keeper of the Light7e
UnderlordXxs
Legion CommanderBEYOND
RubickKaka
Phoenixiceice
UndyingFantasy
Warlockzzq
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Aster · 77%
Series resultTeam Aster 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2