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Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 2 — Китай 1-й дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Asterwin 2:1
series probability
61%39%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Vici Gamingloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Aster

Abaddon
Abaddon
LaNm · 14 games
57%
Mars
Marssignature
Xxs · 14 games
64%
Puck
Pucksignature
White丶Album · 14 games
64%
Queen of Pain
Queen of Painsignature
White丶Album · 13 games
69%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
LaNm · 12 games
58%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingsignature
Monet · 10 games
80%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassinsignature
LaNm · 10 games
70%
Troll Warlord
Troll Warlordoften banned
Monet · 9 games
33%

Vici Gaming

Void Spirit
Void Spiritoften banned
Ori · 19 games
58%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shamansignature
Pyw · 17 games
88%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
ELeVeN · 15 games
67%
Mars
Marsoften banned
ELeVeN · 13 games
54%
Phoenix
Phoenixsignature
Dy · 13 games
69%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
Dy · 10 games
50%
Juggernaut
Juggernautoften banned
poyoyo · 10 games
50%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetsignature
Dy · 9 games
89%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
Puck
419 picks · 950 bans
51%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
385 picks · 544 bans
51%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
344 picks · 713 bans
55%
Mars
Mars
329 picks · 557 bans
54%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
315 picks · 304 bans
48%
Tusk
Tusk
296 picks · 218 bans
52%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
277 picks · 284 bans
51%
Lion
Lion
276 picks · 151 bans
49%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)55% vs 47%
Hero pool strength52% Vici Gaming
Head-to-head1 – 2
Model total61% Team Aster
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct22:9
Team Aster 55%Vici Gaming 45%
The model gave 55% on Team Aster — the game was taken by Team Aster in 41:56.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Wraith King
Wraith KingMonet
49% · 91 game46% · 14 games
Lifestealerpoyoyo
Lifestealer
Leshrac
LeshracWhite丶Album
48% · 37 games47% · 11 games
DoomELeVeN
Doom
Axe
AxeXxs
42% · 8 games58% · 29 games
InvokerOri
Invoker
Dazzle
DazzleBoBoKa
little data50% · 34 games
LionPyw
Lion
Treant Protector
Treant ProtectorLaNm
44% · 8 games53% · 56 games
Death ProphetDy
Death Prophet
Game 2prediction missed12:26
Team Aster 55%Vici Gaming 45%
The model gave 55% on Team Aster — the game was taken by Vici Gaming in 39:29.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Juggernaut
JuggernautMonet
52% · 84 games56% · 30 games
Morphlingpoyoyo
Morphling
Doom
DoomXxs
52% · 17 games52% · 14 games
Dark SeerELeVeN
Dark Seer
Leshrac
LeshracWhite丶Album
49% · 54 games44% · 16 games
TinyOri
Tiny
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath MageBoBoKa
29% · 6 games56% · 61 game
Earth SpiritPyw
Earth Spirit
Treant Protector
Treant ProtectorLaNm
48% · 9 games41% · 49 games
Death ProphetDy
Death Prophet
Game 3prediction correct39:27
Team Aster 55%Vici Gaming 45%
The model gave 55% on Team Aster — the game was taken by Team Aster in 59:13.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ursa
UrsaMonet
41% · 44 gameslittle data
Lunapoyoyo
Luna
Shadow Fiend
Shadow FiendWhite丶Album
60% · 17 gameslittle data
ZeusOri
Zeus
Axe
AxeXxs
55% · 12 games56% · 5 games
Legion CommanderELeVeN
Legion Commander
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath MageBoBoKa
little data51% · 35 games
Death ProphetDy
Death Prophet
Treant Protector
Treant ProtectorLaNm
43% · 3 games52% · 36 games
Nyx AssassinPyw
Nyx Assassin
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Aster · 61%
Series resultTeam Aster 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3