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i-League 2021 · BO5
result vs prediction
Team Asterwin 3:0
series probability
37%63%
probability at match start · final 3:0
Vici Gamingloss 0:3
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Aster

Abaddon
Abaddonsignature
LaNm · 22 games
68%
Puck
Puckoften banned
White丶Album · 21 game
57%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Xxs · 20 games
55%
Treant Protector
Treant Protector
LaNm · 15 games
53%
Troll Warlord
Troll Warlordoften banned
Monet · 15 games
53%
Leshrac
Leshracsignature
White丶Album · 14 games
64%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
LaNm · 13 games
54%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
White丶Album · 11 games
9%

Vici Gaming

Void Spirit
Void Spiritoften banned
Ori · 24 games
58%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
Dy · 22 games
50%
Mars
Marsoften banned
ELeVeN · 22 games
55%
Phoenix
Phoenixsignature
Dy · 21 game
71%
Spectre
Spectresignature
poyoyo · 19 games
79%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shamansignature
Pyw · 18 games
83%
Timbersaw
Timbersawsignature
ELeVeN · 18 games
83%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
Pyw · 17 games
59%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
Lion
434 picks · 174 bans
50%
Mars
Mars
328 picks · 531 bans
49%
Ancient Apparition
Ancient Apparition
316 picks · 477 bans
56%
Snapfire
Snapfire
316 picks · 179 bans
52%
Puck
Puck
311 picks · 770 bans
49%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassin
302 picks · 627 bans
58%
Tiny
Tiny
281 picks · 227 bans
52%
Enchantress
Enchantress
279 picks · 356 bans
50%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)61% vs 56%
Hero pool strength56% Vici Gaming
Head-to-head3 – 4
Model total63% Vici Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed35:9
Team Aster 41%Vici Gaming 59%
The model gave 59% on Vici Gaming — the game was taken by Team Aster in 33:06.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Luna
LunaMonet
48% · 110 games49% · 62 games
Medusapoyoyo
Medusa
Magnus
MagnusWhite丶Album
49% · 86 games53% · 98 games
TimbersawELeVeN
Timbersaw
Bloodseeker
BloodseekerXxs
45% · 79 games62% · 48 games
InvokerOri
Invoker
Windranger
WindrangerBoBoKa
53% · 40 games58% · 68 games
Ancient ApparitionDy
Ancient Apparition
Winter Wyvern
Winter WyvernLaNm
45% · 106 games44% · 145 games
LionPyw
Lion
Game 2prediction missed27:9
Team Aster 42%Vici Gaming 58%
The model gave 58% on Vici Gaming — the game was taken by Team Aster in 28:43.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Axe
AxeMonet
41% · 46 games54% · 39 games
Weaverpoyoyo
Weaver
Leshrac
LeshracWhite丶Album
47% · 81 game60% · 73 games
Templar AssassinOri
Templar Assassin
Timbersaw
TimbersawXxs
45% · 81 game59% · 32 games
SlardarELeVeN
Slardar
Windranger
WindrangerBoBoKa
50% · 29 games50% · 91 game
PangolierPyw
Pangolier
Oracle
OracleLaNm
45% · 83 games53% · 85 games
Winter WyvernDy
Winter Wyvern
Game 3prediction missed34:7
Team Aster 43%Vici Gaming 57%
The model gave 57% on Vici Gaming — the game was taken by Team Aster in 18:40.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Luna
LunaMonet
55% · 87 games53% · 54 games
Magnuspoyoyo
Magnus
Puck
PuckWhite丶Album
50% · 314 games45% · 114 games
Monkey KingOri
Monkey King
Legion Commander
Legion CommanderXxs
51% · 45 games45% · 76 games
ViperELeVeN
Viper
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath MageBoBoKa
39% · 20 games54% · 276 games
LionDy
Lion
Phoenix
PhoenixLaNm
52% · 218 games47% · 164 games
Earth SpiritPyw
Earth Spirit
Model check result
Model favoriteVici Gaming · 63%
Series resultTeam Aster 3:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 3