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Riyadh Masters 2023 · BO2
result vs prediction
Team Asterwin 2:0
series probability
55%45%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Virtus.proloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Aster

Doom
Doomoften banned
Xxs · 28 games
57%
Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
BoBoKa · 28 games
61%
Rubick
Rubick
Fantasy · 27 games
41%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Xxs · 25 games
56%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
SumaiL · 25 games
64%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
SumaiL · 23 games
52%
Disruptor
Disruptor
Fantasy · 22 games
45%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingoften banned
Monet · 19 games
53%

Virtus.pro

Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Squad1x · 17 games
47%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetoften banned
krylat · 15 games
47%
Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
Fng · 14 games
50%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
Noticed · 13 games
62%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
Dukalis · 12 games
67%
Mirana
Miranasignature
sayuw · 12 games
67%
Techies
Techiesoften banned
Fng · 11 games
55%
Tiny
Tiny
sayuw · 11 games
55%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Techies
Techies
640 picks · 690 bans
54%
Rubick
Rubick
473 picks · 323 bans
47%
Doom
Doom
459 picks · 987 bans
54%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
393 picks · 846 bans
48%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
391 picks · 353 bans
55%
Batrider
Batrider
390 picks · 933 bans
51%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
378 picks · 1003 bans
57%
Pugna
Pugna
378 picks · 448 bans
53%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)38% vs 57%
Hero pool strength53% Virtus.pro
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total55% Team Aster
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct39:12
Team Aster 52%Virtus.pro 48%
The model gave 52% on Team Aster — the game was taken by Team Aster in 28:26.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Faceless Void
Faceless VoidMonet
43% · 143 games56% · 114 games
Dark SeerNoticed
Dark Seer
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritSumaiL
47% · 195 games53% · 398 games
PangolierSquad1x
Pangolier
Mars
MarsXxs
44% · 124 games60% · 75 games
IoKiritych
Io
Snapfire
SnapfireKaka
41% · 348 games54% · 424 games
UndyingFng
Undying
Clockwerk
ClockwerkFantasy
50% · 252 games51% · 51 game
Lionsayuw
Lion
Game 2prediction correct19:7
Team Aster 54%Virtus.pro 46%
The model gave 54% on Team Aster — the game was taken by Team Aster in 31:59.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Medusa
MedusaMonet
60% · 150 games49% · 121 game
AlchemistKiritych
Alchemist
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritSumaiL
47% · 396 games49% · 189 games
TimbersawSquad1x
Timbersaw
Beastmaster
BeastmasterXxs
53% · 367 games50% · 154 games
UnderlordNoticed
Underlord
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the LightFantasy
53% · 207 games45% · 570 games
Rubicksayuw
Rubick
Lion
LionKaka
46% · 57 games46% · 143 games
Shadow DemonFng
Shadow Demon
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Aster · 55%
Series resultTeam Aster 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2