Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022: Season 2 — Китай · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Asterwin 2:0series probability
45%55%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Xtreme Gamingloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Aster
Banesignature
Fantasy · 22 games
Marsoften banned
Xxs · 22 games
Snapfiresignature
Fantasy · 20 games
Grimstrokesignature
Fantasy · 19 games
Monkey Kingoften banned
BoBoKa · 17 games
Pangoliersignature
Xxs · 16 games
Queen of Painoften banned
Ori · 16 games
Iosignature
BoBoKa · 13 games
Xtreme Gaming
Queen of Painsignature
Paparazi · 13 games
Banesignature
Dy · 12 games
Marssignature
Srf · 12 games
Nyx Assassinsignature
Pyw · 11 games
Storm Spiritsignature
Paparazi · 11 games
Wraith Kingsignature
lou · 11 games
Death Prophetsignature
Paparazi · 10 games
Spirit Breakersignature
Pyw · 10 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Bane
445 picks · 266 bans
Mars
401 picks · 553 bans
Death Prophet
322 picks · 633 bans
Tiny
319 picks · 371 bans
Weaver
302 picks · 379 bans
Ember Spirit
285 picks · 412 bans
Queen of Pain
272 picks · 439 bans
Sand King
269 picks · 328 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)64% vs 81%
Hero pool strength55% Xtreme Gaming
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total55% Xtreme Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed27:8
Team Aster 48%Xtreme Gaming 52%
The model gave 52% on Xtreme Gaming — the game was taken by Team Aster in 37:37.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Phantom AssassinMonet
Terrorbladelou
Dragon KnightOri
PuckPaparazi
PangolierXxs
MarsELeVeN
GrimstrokeBoBoKa
MiranaPyw
BaneFantasy
PugnaDy
Game 2prediction missed18:14
Team Aster 50%Xtreme Gaming 50%
The model gave 50% on Xtreme Gaming — the game was taken by Team Aster in 32:28.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
LinaOri
Morphlinglou
Templar AssassinMonet
RazorPaparazi
BrewmasterXxs
MarsELeVeN
MiranaBoBoKa
GrimstrokePyw
BaneFantasy
PangolierDy
Model check result
Model favoriteXtreme Gaming · 55%
Series resultTeam Aster 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2