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Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022: Season 2 — Китай · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Asterloss 0:2
series probability
55%45%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Xtreme Gamingwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Aster

Bane
Banesignature
Fantasy · 26 games
77%
Grimstroke
Grimstrokesignature
Fantasy · 22 games
64%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Xxs · 22 games
55%
Snapfire
Snapfiresignature
Fantasy · 20 games
60%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Xxs · 19 games
74%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingoften banned
BoBoKa · 17 games
59%
Queen of Pain
Queen of Painoften banned
Ori · 16 games
50%
Io
Iosignature
BoBoKa · 14 games
86%

Xtreme Gaming

Bane
Banesignature
Dy · 14 games
71%
Mars
Marssignature
Srf · 14 games
64%
Queen of Pain
Queen of Painsignature
Paparazi · 13 games
77%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
Paparazi · 12 games
75%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassinsignature
Pyw · 11 games
100%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinsignature
lou · 11 games
73%
Ursa
Ursaoften banned
Another · 11 games
55%
Wraith King
Wraith Kingsignature
lou · 11 games
73%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Bane
Bane
425 picks · 273 bans
57%
Mars
Mars
411 picks · 549 bans
53%
Tiny
Tiny
370 picks · 426 bans
52%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
341 picks · 697 bans
55%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
305 picks · 449 bans
53%
Sand King
Sand King
303 picks · 404 bans
53%
Pangolier
Pangolier
266 picks · 394 bans
52%
Weaver
Weaver
263 picks · 311 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)58% vs 73%
Hero pool strength53% Xtreme Gaming
Head-to-head2 – 0
Model total55% Team Aster
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed15:30
Team Aster 53%Xtreme Gaming 47%
The model gave 53% on Team Aster — the game was taken by Xtreme Gaming in 46:40.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Medusa
MedusaMonet
55% · 205 games54% · 109 games
Ursalou
Ursa
Winter Wyvern
Winter WyvernOri
48% · 85 games45% · 28 games
HuskarPaparazi
Huskar
Tusk
TuskXxs
50% · 84 games48% · 419 games
MarsELeVeN
Mars
Io
IoBoBoKa
49% · 191 game43% · 78 games
Shadow ShamanPyw
Shadow Shaman
Bane
BaneFantasy
52% · 312 games50% · 243 games
Death ProphetDy
Death Prophet
Game 2prediction missed16:26
Team Aster 52%Xtreme Gaming 48%
The model gave 52% on Team Aster — the game was taken by Xtreme Gaming in 29:02.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Terrorblade
TerrorbladeMonet
45% · 165 games51% · 332 games
Tinylou
Tiny
Razor
RazorOri
47% · 124 games52% · 180 games
TimbersawELeVeN
Timbersaw
Sand King
Sand KingXxs
52% · 219 games46% · 231 game
Storm SpiritPaparazi
Storm Spirit
Mirana
MiranaBoBoKa
60% · 188 games51% · 71 game
Shadow ShamanPyw
Shadow Shaman
Snapfire
SnapfireFantasy
49% · 196 games45% · 78 games
PugnaDy
Pugna
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Aster · 55%
Series resultXtreme Gaming 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2