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Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022: Season 3 — Китай · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Asterwin 2:0
series probability
54%46%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Xtreme Gamingloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Aster

Bane
Banesignature
Fantasy · 26 games
77%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Xxs · 20 games
65%
Grimstroke
Grimstrokesignature
Fantasy · 19 games
68%
Snapfire
Snapfire
Fantasy · 19 games
58%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Xxs · 18 games
50%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingsignature
BoBoKa · 15 games
60%
Io
Iosignature
BoBoKa · 13 games
85%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Monet · 13 games
69%

Xtreme Gaming

Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinsignature
lou · 15 games
67%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetsignature
Paparazi · 12 games
75%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassinsignature
Pyw · 11 games
100%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightsignature
ELeVeN · 10 games
70%
Puck
Pucksignature
Paparazi · 10 games
60%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
Paparazi · 9 games
78%
Weaver
Weaversignature
Pyw · 9 games
89%
Bane
Banesignature
Dy · 8 games
63%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
529 picks · 454 bans
50%
Mars
Mars
459 picks · 683 bans
47%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
424 picks · 543 bans
50%
Bane
Bane
400 picks · 284 bans
58%
Pangolier
Pangolier
355 picks · 595 bans
52%
Puck
Puck
339 picks · 792 bans
57%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spirit
339 picks · 552 bans
56%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
336 picks · 627 bans
47%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)58% vs 59%
Hero pool strength55% Xtreme Gaming
Head-to-head3 – 1
Model total54% Team Aster
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed20:7
Team Aster 49%Xtreme Gaming 51%
The model gave 51% on Xtreme Gaming — the game was taken by Team Aster in 28:48.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Alchemist
AlchemistMonet
54% · 22 games44% · 74 games
Ursalou
Ursa
Tiny
TinyOri
48% · 213 games51% · 201 game
PuckPaparazi
Puck
Visage
VisageXxs
56% · 51 game50% · 79 games
ViperELeVeN
Viper
Monkey King
Monkey KingBoBoKa
48% · 175 games52% · 90 games
Shadow ShamanPyw
Shadow Shaman
Winter Wyvern
Winter WyvernFantasy
48% · 96 games51% · 113 games
Treant ProtectorDy
Treant Protector
Game 2prediction correct26:21
Team Aster 51%Xtreme Gaming 49%
The model gave 51% on Team Aster — the game was taken by Team Aster in 40:02.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Monkey King
Monkey KingMonet
53% · 203 games51% · 43 games
Spectrelou
Spectre
Puck
PuckOri
49% · 208 games48% · 71 game
EnigmaELeVeN
Enigma
Underlord
UnderlordXxs
46% · 67 games50% · 223 games
Ember SpiritPaparazi
Ember Spirit
Rubick
RubickBoBoKa
49% · 138 games48% · 219 games
PangolierPyw
Pangolier
Phoenix
PhoenixFantasy
57% · 77 games49% · 137 games
DisruptorDy
Disruptor
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Aster · 54%
Series resultTeam Aster 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 2