PGL Wallachia Season 6. Закрытые квалификации · BO5
result vs predictionTATeam Aureuswin 3:2
series probability
64%36%
probability at match start · final 3:2
Execrationloss 2:3The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Aureus
Hoodwinksignature
Tims · 15 games
Bristlebacksignature
Force · 11 games
Disruptorsignature
Tims · 11 games
Gyrocoptersignature
Natsumi · 11 games
Snapfiresignature
Tims · 11 games
Dawnbreakeroften banned
Force · 9 games
Sand Kingsignature
Yopaj · 8 games
Abaddonsignature
Natsumi · 7 games
Execration
Snapfiresignature
Shanks · 20 games
Tusksignature
Shanks · 14 games
Witch Doctor
cml · 14 games
Marsoften banned
Tino- · 12 games
Magnus
Tino- · 11 games
Puckoften banned
Bob · 11 games
Svenoften banned
Palos · 11 games
Templar Assassinoften banned
Palos · 11 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Disruptor
451 picks · 430 bans
Snapfire
450 picks · 228 bans
Puck
356 picks · 940 bans
Pugna
325 picks · 372 bans
Warlock
299 picks · 148 bans
Tusk
296 picks · 227 bans
Nature's Prophet
286 picks · 670 bans
Batrider
284 picks · 659 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)72% vs 54%
Hero pool strength53% Team Aureus
Head-to-head3 – 1
Model total64% Team Aureus
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct30:23
Team Aureus 57%Execration 43%
The model gave 57% on Team Aureus — the game was taken by Team Aureus in 45:26.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
GyrocopterNatsumi
Dragon KnightPalos
Monkey KingYopaj
Sand KingTino-
AbaddonForce
BatriderBob
SnapfireSkem
HoodwinkShanks
TuskTims
Jakirocml
Game 2prediction correct28:19
Team Aureus 60%Execration 40%
The model gave 60% on Team Aureus — the game was taken by Team Aureus in 35:52.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Dragon KnightYopaj
SvenPalos
GyrocopterNatsumi
Queen of PainBob
MarsForce
BeastmasterTino-
Naga SirenSkem
BatriderShanks
SnapfireTims
Jakirocml
Game 3prediction missed38:37
Team Aureus 59%Execration 41%
The model gave 59% on Team Aureus — the game was taken by Execration in 52:04.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
GyrocopterNatsumi
Phantom AssassinPalos
Sand KingYopaj
BeastmasterBob
MarciForce
MarsTino-
Shadow DemonTims
RingmasterShanks
Elder TitanSkem
Witch Doctorcml
Game 4prediction missed19:31
Team Aureus 58%Execration 42%
The model gave 58% on Team Aureus — the game was taken by Execration in 40:27.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
TerrorbladeNatsumi
Nature's ProphetPalos
BeastmasterYopaj
PangolierBob
AbaddonForce
MarsTino-
TuskTims
Shadow DemonShanks
SilencerSkem
Witch Doctorcml
Game 5prediction correct33:13
Team Aureus 59%Execration 41%
The model gave 59% on Team Aureus — the game was taken by Team Aureus in 44:03.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar AssassinNatsumi
MarciPalos
BeastmasterForce
Dragon KnightBob
Queen of PainYopaj
PangolierTino-
HoodwinkTims
RingmasterShanks
BaneSkem
Witch Doctorcml
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Aureus · 64%
Series resultTeam Aureus 3:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game3 of 5