FISSURE PLAYGROUND 2 — Dota 2. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs predictionTATeam Aureuswin 2:0
series probability
70%30%
probability at match start · final 2:0
HSHong shi zhang zuiloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Aureus
Gyrocoptersignature
Natsumi · 11 games
Hoodwinksignature
Tims · 11 games
Bristlebacksignature
Force · 10 games
Snapfiresignature
Tims · 10 games
Disruptorsignature
Tims · 9 games
Dawnbreakeroften banned
Force · 7 games
Abaddonsignature
Natsumi · 6 games
Sand Kingsignature
Yopaj · 6 games
Hong shi zhang zui
Snapfiresignature
TK · 10 games
Centaur Warrunnersignature
BEYOND · 7 games
Hoodwink
TK · 7 games
Lycanoften banned
BEYOND · 7 games
Disruptor
Undyne_ · 5 games
Naga Sirenoften banned
Undyne_ · 4 games
Shadow Demon
Undyne_ · 4 games
Troll Warlordoften banned
lou · 4 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Disruptor
383 picks · 347 bans
Puck
340 picks · 858 bans
Snapfire
340 picks · 170 bans
Pugna
295 picks · 339 bans
Tusk
282 picks · 247 bans
Warlock
282 picks · 126 bans
Dawnbreaker
280 picks · 790 bans
Batrider
272 picks · 683 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)70% vs 65%
Hero pool strength53% Team Aureus
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total70% Team Aureus
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct29:5
Team Aureus 60%Hong shi zhang zui 40%
The model gave 60% on Team Aureus — the game was taken by Team Aureus in 24:54.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
MarciNatsumi
Ursalou
Monkey KingYopaj
AbaddonBEYOND
Sand KingForce
SnapfireTK
WarlockSkem
DisruptorUndyne_
HoodwinkTims
Game 2prediction correct32:15
Team Aureus 60%Hong shi zhang zui 40%
The model gave 60% on Team Aureus — the game was taken by Team Aureus in 27:33.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Nature's ProphetNatsumi
Ursalou
Sand KingYopaj
EarthshakerBEYOND
EnigmaForce
DisruptorUndyne_
SnapfireSkem
RingmasterTK
ClockwerkTims
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Aureus · 70%
Series resultTeam Aureus 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2