DreamLeague Season 27. Открытые квалификации · BO3
result vs predictionTATeam Aureuswin 2:0
series probability
82%18%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Kopiteloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Aureus
No games played over 6 months.
Kopite
Ancient Apparition
Bombi · 2 games
Clockwerk
Bombi · 2 games
Dragon Knight
GaN- · 2 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
GaN- · 2 games
Huskaroften banned
GaN- · 2 games
Oracle
Bombi · 2 games
Puckoften banned
GaN- · 2 games
Batrideroften banned
Bombi · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Shadow Shaman
297 picks · 190 bans
Puck
294 picks · 686 bans
Dark Willow
258 picks · 109 bans
Tusk
258 picks · 255 bans
Dawnbreaker
256 picks · 640 bans
Nature's Prophet
250 picks · 534 bans
Disruptor
247 picks · 212 bans
Marci
244 picks · 569 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)60% vs 50%
Hero pool strength54% Team Aureus
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total82% Team Aureus
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct
Team Aureus 82%Kopite 18%
The model gave 82% on Team Aureus — the game was taken by Team Aureus.
Game 2prediction correct
Team Aureus 82%Kopite 18%
The model gave 82% on Team Aureus — the game was taken by Team Aureus.
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Aureus · 82%
Series resultTeam Aureus 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2