Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022 — Западная Европа · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Bald Rebornloss 0:2series probability
32%68%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Entitywin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Bald Reborn
Pangolieroften banned
Rajjix · 3 games
Elder Titan
Eixn · 2 games
Grimstroke
pieliedie · 2 games
Hoodwink
Pablo · 2 games
Nyx Assassinoften banned
Pablo · 2 games
Queen of Painoften banned
Excalibur · 2 games
Razoroften banned
Gorgc · 2 games
Tidehunteroften banned
ZipZaper · 2 games
Entity
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Mars
325 picks · 461 bans
Bane
273 picks · 209 bans
Snapfire
263 picks · 150 bans
Tidehunter
261 picks · 394 bans
Monkey King
260 picks · 700 bans
Weaver
260 picks · 560 bans
Ember Spirit
212 picks · 294 bans
Lion
211 picks · 98 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 56%
Hero pool strength50% Entity
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total68% Entity
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct3:22
Team Bald Reborn 32%Entity 68%
The model gave 68% on Entity — the game was taken by Entity in 13:39.
Game 2prediction correct14:35
Team Bald Reborn 32%Entity 68%
The model gave 68% on Entity — the game was taken by Entity in 23:21.
Model check result
Model favoriteEntity · 68%
Series resultEntity 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2