Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 2 — Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Bald Rebornwin 2:0series probability
49%51%
probability at match start · final 2:0
HUhehe unitedloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Bald Reborn
No games played over 6 months.
hehe united
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
401 picks · 923 bans
Void Spirit
373 picks · 556 bans
Mars
325 picks · 595 bans
Death Prophet
291 picks · 556 bans
Earth Spirit
289 picks · 255 bans
Rubick
255 picks · 168 bans
Wraith King
241 picks · 400 bans
Phoenix
239 picks · 324 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)56% vs 63%
Hero pool strength50% Team Bald Reborn
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total51% hehe united
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed45:26
Team Bald Reborn 49%hehe united 51%
The model gave 51% on hehe united — the game was taken by Team Bald Reborn in 42:25.
Game 2prediction missed41:24
Team Bald Reborn 49%hehe united 51%
The model gave 51% on hehe united — the game was taken by Team Bald Reborn in 35:53.
Model check result
Model favoritehehe united · 51%
Series resultTeam Bald Reborn 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2