Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 2 — Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Bald Rebornwin 2:1series probability
56%44%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Meta4Proloss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Bald Reborn
No games played over 6 months.
Meta4Pro
Pangolieroften banned
ZipZaper · 3 games
Phantom Assassinoften banned
Lowskill · 3 games
Tidehunteroften banned
Wuiter · 3 games
Lion
Niqua · 2 games
Alchemistoften banned
Lowskill · 1 game
Bounty Hunter
ZipZaper · 1 game
Bristlebackoften banned
ZipZaper · 1 game
Clockwerk
Niqua · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
401 picks · 933 bans
Void Spirit
373 picks · 566 bans
Mars
326 picks · 604 bans
Death Prophet
291 picks · 572 bans
Earth Spirit
289 picks · 258 bans
Rubick
255 picks · 171 bans
Wraith King
241 picks · 407 bans
Phoenix
239 picks · 327 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)60% vs 47%
Hero pool strength52% Meta4Pro
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total56% Team Bald Reborn
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed25:35
Team Bald Reborn 56%Meta4Pro 44%
The model gave 56% on Team Bald Reborn — the game was taken by Meta4Pro in 37:36.
Game 2prediction correct32:15
Team Bald Reborn 56%Meta4Pro 44%
The model gave 56% on Team Bald Reborn — the game was taken by Team Bald Reborn in 34:59.
Game 3prediction correct32:12
Team Bald Reborn 56%Meta4Pro 44%
The model gave 56% on Team Bald Reborn — the game was taken by Team Bald Reborn in 30:41.
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Bald Reborn · 56%
Series resultTeam Bald Reborn 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3