Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 2 — Открытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Bald Rebornwin 2:0series probability
45%55%
probability at match start · final 2:0
MMjolnirloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Bald Reborn
No games played over 6 months.
Mjolnir
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
381 picks · 820 bans
Void Spirit
358 picks · 496 bans
Mars
309 picks · 542 bans
Death Prophet
275 picks · 458 bans
Earth Spirit
272 picks · 231 bans
Rubick
251 picks · 151 bans
Keeper of the Light
238 picks · 505 bans
Wraith King
235 picks · 360 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)40% vs 50%
Hero pool strength50% Team Bald Reborn
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total55% Mjolnir
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed34:24
Team Bald Reborn 45%Mjolnir 55%
The model gave 55% on Mjolnir — the game was taken by Team Bald Reborn in 31:07.
Game 2prediction missed16:47
Team Bald Reborn 45%Mjolnir 55%
The model gave 55% on Mjolnir — the game was taken by Team Bald Reborn in 31:22.
Model check result
Model favoriteMjolnir · 55%
Series resultTeam Bald Reborn 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2