PGL Wallachia 2024: Season 1. Открытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Barsloss 0:2series probability
26%74%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Natus Vincere Juniorwin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Bars
No games played over 6 months.
Natus Vincere Junior
Snapfire
Daze · 30 games
Grimstrokeoften banned
Riddys · 23 games
Lion
Riddys · 20 games
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
pma · 19 games
Morphlingoften banned
gotthejuice · 17 games
Faceless Voidsignature
gotthejuice · 15 games
Pugna
Riddys · 15 games
Marcisignature
Daze · 13 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Centaur Warrunner
383 picks · 619 bans
Lion
379 picks · 351 bans
Mars
370 picks · 583 bans
Techies
369 picks · 297 bans
Batrider
351 picks · 741 bans
Vengeful Spirit
348 picks · 342 bans
Tiny
335 picks · 362 bans
Hoodwink
329 picks · 198 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)44% vs 53%
Hero pool strength52% Team Bars
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total74% Natus Vincere Junior
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct
Team Bars 26%Natus Vincere Junior 74%
The model gave 74% on Natus Vincere Junior — the game was taken by Natus Vincere Junior.
Game 2prediction correct26:16
Team Bars 26%Natus Vincere Junior 74%
The model gave 74% on Natus Vincere Junior — the game was taken by Natus Vincere Junior in 28:21.
Model check result
Model favoriteNatus Vincere Junior · 74%
Series resultNatus Vincere Junior 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2