Team Bright vs Crocodile — prediction ELS-ЗК 2 · Dota 2

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Elite League Season 2 - Закрытые квалификации · BO3

result vs prediction

Team Brightloss 0:2

series probability

60%40%

probability at match start · final 0:2

Crocodilewin 2:0

The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.

Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months

Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Bright

Crystal Maiden

RedPanda · 10 games

40%

Shadow Demonoften banned

RedPanda · 9 games

22%

Templar Assassinoften banned

ukiyo · 9 games

44%

Tidehunter

Irving · 9 games

56%

Batrideroften banned

TK · 8 games

38%

Slardarsignature

Irving · 8 games

63%

Ember Spiritoften banned

ButterflyEffect · 7 games

57%

Linasignature

Ulu · 7 games

71%

Crocodile

No games played over 6 months.

Patch meta · 3 months

The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.

Tiny

415 picks · 615 bans

50%

Gyrocopter

368 picks · 387 bans

50%

Centaur Warrunner

360 picks · 465 bans

55%

Crystal Maiden

357 picks · 147 bans

53%

Pangolier

319 picks · 579 bans

51%

Dragon Knight

316 picks · 667 bans

50%

Rubick

314 picks · 150 bans

51%

Batrider

313 picks · 444 bans

48%

Prediction components

Form (series winrate)40% vs 67%

Hero pool strength54% Crocodile

Head-to-head0 – 0

Model total60% Team Bright

Prediction by game vs result

Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.

Game 1prediction missed14:36

Team Bright 52%Crocodile 48%

The model gave 52% on Team Bright — the game was taken by Crocodile in 27:10.

Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo