PGL Wallachia 2024: Season 1. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Brightwin 2:0series probability
60%40%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Dark Horseloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Bright
Magnusoften banned
Irving · 10 games
Tidehuntersignature
Irving · 10 games
Kunkkaoften banned
Xwy · 8 games
Shadow Demonoften banned
RedPanda · 7 games
Templar Assassinoften banned
Xwy · 7 games
Doomoften banned
Irving · 6 games
Ember Spiritsignature
ButterflyEffect · 6 games
Hoodwinksignature
TK · 6 games
Dark Horse
Clockwerk
sheep · 7 games
Phoenixoften banned
sheep · 7 games
Lion
sheep · 3 games
Techies
sheep · 3 games
Shadow Demonoften banned
sheep · 2 games
Batrideroften banned
sheep · 1 game
Dark Willow
sheep · 1 game
Hoodwink
sheep · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Centaur Warrunner
429 picks · 697 bans
Techies
406 picks · 325 bans
Mars
404 picks · 660 bans
Lion
396 picks · 361 bans
Batrider
387 picks · 858 bans
Tiny
387 picks · 492 bans
Vengeful Spirit
361 picks · 359 bans
Crystal Maiden
358 picks · 160 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 38%
Hero pool strength52% Team Bright
Head-to-head1 – 1
Model total60% Team Bright
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct38:10
Team Bright 56%Dark Horse 44%
The model gave 56% on Team Bright — the game was taken by Team Bright in 26:07.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
LinaXwy
Clockwerksheep
LifestealerUlu
SlardarIrving
BatriderTK
Crystal MaidenRedPanda
Game 2prediction correct30:24
Team Bright 54%Dark Horse 46%
The model gave 54% on Team Bright — the game was taken by Team Bright in 29:25.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
LeshracXwy
Crystal Maidensheep
SlardarIrving
Queen of PainUlu
BatriderTK
DisruptorRedPanda
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Bright · 60%
Series resultTeam Bright 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2