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Elite League. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Brightloss 0:2
series probability
78%22%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Eaglewin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Bright

Magnus
Magnusoften banned
Irving · 9 games
44%
Tidehunter
Tidehuntersignature
Irving · 8 games
63%
Doom
Doomoften banned
Irving · 6 games
33%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
ButterflyEffect · 6 games
67%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonoften banned
RedPanda · 6 games
33%
Ancient Apparition
Ancient Apparitionoften banned
Undyne_ · 5 games
80%
Kunkka
Kunkkaoften banned
phoenix · 5 games
40%
Medusa
Medusaoften banned
Ulu · 5 games
40%

Eagle

Muerta
Muerta
Tz. · 5 games
40%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
ukiyo · 3 games
33%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonoften banned
mercy · 3 games
33%
Treant Protector
Treant Protectoroften banned
Tz. · 3 games
67%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
mercy · 2 games
50%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
mercy · 2 games
100%
Kunkka
Kunkkaoften banned
ButterflyEffect · 2 games
50%
Magnus
Magnusoften banned
ButterflyEffect · 2 games
100%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
Lion
380 picks · 346 bans
52%
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spirit
335 picks · 324 bans
51%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
329 picks · 504 bans
56%
Mars
Mars
310 picks · 432 bans
55%
Techies
Techies
290 picks · 213 bans
54%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
282 picks · 159 bans
51%
Pangolier
Pangolier
279 picks · 425 bans
51%
Batrider
Batrider
273 picks · 505 bans
56%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)56% vs 38%
Hero pool strength50% Team Bright
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total78% Team Bright
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed9:23
Team Bright 68%Eagle 32%
The model gave 68% on Team Bright — the game was taken by Eagle in 25:37.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Gyrocopter
GyrocopterUlu
54% · 67 games51% · 112 games
Naga SirenManic
Naga Siren
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritXwy
52% · 230 games47% · 160 games
Dragon KnightStorm
Dragon Knight
Mars
MarsIrving
48% · 152 games51% · 162 games
Shadow DemonHara
Shadow Demon
Mirana
MiranaTK
50% · 150 games47% · 273 games
TechiesVictoria
Techies
Crystal Maiden
Crystal MaidenRedPanda
50% · 108 games
Game 2prediction missed21:36
Team Bright 66%Eagle 34%
The model gave 66% on Team Bright — the game was taken by Eagle in 38:31.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Death Prophet
Death ProphetXwy
50% · 59 games53% · 129 games
Naga SirenManic
Naga Siren
Phantom Assassin
Phantom AssassinUlu
43% · 40 games59% · 219 games
Storm SpiritStorm
Storm Spirit
Primal Beast
Primal BeastIrving
45% · 158 games53% · 134 games
PugnaHara
Pugna
Batrider
BatriderTK
52% · 222 games45% · 99 games
GrimstrokeVictoria
Grimstroke
Crystal Maiden
Crystal MaidenRedPanda
45% · 102 games
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Bright · 78%
Series resultEagle 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2