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Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 2 Китай. Второй дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Brightwin 2:1
series probability
61%39%
probability at match start · final 2:1
iG Vitalityloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Bright

Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
phoenix · 2 games
100%
Abaddon
Abaddonoften banned
Undyne_ · 1 game
100%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
Irving · 1 game
100%
Doom
Doomoften banned
Irving · 1 game
100%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
phoenix · 1 game
100%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
Undyne_ · 1 game
100%
Legion Commander
Legion Commanderoften banned
Irving · 1 game
100%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastoften banned
Irving · 1 game
100%

iG Vitality

Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
Ash · 7 games
86%
Jakiro
Jakirosignature
Sj · 6 games
83%
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiendoften banned
ukiyo · 6 games
50%
Undying
Undyingoften banned
Sj · 5 games
60%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
Sj · 4 games
50%
Drow Ranger
Drow Rangeroften banned
ukiyo · 4 games
50%
Tusk
Tusk
Drink · 4 games
100%
Lycan
Lycanoften banned
Summer · 3 games
33%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
922 picks · 628 bans
49%
Tiny
Tiny
647 picks · 453 bans
52%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
551 picks · 877 bans
55%
Tusk
Tusk
542 picks · 436 bans
47%
Treant Protector
Treant Protector
538 picks · 543 bans
55%
Snapfire
Snapfire
494 picks · 334 bans
46%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
474 picks · 1039 bans
51%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
449 picks · 326 bans
56%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)75% vs 67%
Hero pool strength50% Team Bright
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total61% Team Bright
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed24:34
Team Bright 55%iG Vitality 45%
The model gave 55% on Team Bright — the game was taken by iG Vitality in 1:08:13.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Pangolier
Pangolierphoenix
53% · 264 games50% · 114 games
Naga Sirenukiyo
Naga Siren
Broodmother
BroodmotherIrving
52% · 235 games51% · 134 games
Nature's Prophetdolem
Nature's Prophet
Phoenix
PhoenixUndyne_
51% · 107 games44% · 49 games
Queen of PainAsh
Queen of Pain
47% · 128 games
DisruptorDrink
Disruptor
46% · 181 game
Crystal MaidenSj
Crystal Maiden
Game 2prediction correct28:13
Team Bright 55%iG Vitality 45%
The model gave 55% on Team Bright — the game was taken by Team Bright in 28:45.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritphoenix
47% · 297 games53% · 87 games
Lycandolem
Lycan
Beastmaster
BeastmasterIrving
45% · 266 games44% · 82 games
Drow Rangerukiyo
Drow Ranger
Chen
ChenUndyne_
54% · 46 games58% · 137 games
Storm SpiritAsh
Storm Spirit
62% · 112 games
DisruptorDrink
Disruptor
49% · 191 game
UndyingSj
Undying
Game 3prediction correct19:8
Team Bright 54%iG Vitality 46%
The model gave 54% on Team Bright — the game was taken by Team Bright in 28:00.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Kunkka
Kunkkaphoenix
51% · 133 games59% · 50 games
Shadow FiendAsh
Shadow Fiend
Tidehunter
TidehunterIrving
45% · 122 games57% · 123 games
Beastmasterdolem
Beastmaster
Lich
LichUndyne_
42% · 84 games41% · 13 games
Night Stalkerukiyo
Night Stalker
51% · 120 games
RubickDrink
Rubick
54% · 33 games
JakiroSj
Jakiro
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Bright · 61%
Series resultTeam Bright 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3