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ESL One Kuala Lumpur 2023. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Brightloss 0:2
series probability
20%80%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Invictus Gamingwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Bright

Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
phoenix · 9 games
44%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
phoenix · 8 games
50%
Disruptor
Disruptor
Undyne_ · 6 games
33%
Doom
Doomsignature
Irving · 6 games
67%
Magnus
Magnus
Irving · 6 games
33%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
phoenix · 6 games
17%
Lich
Lich
Undyne_ · 5 games
40%
Silencer
Silenceroften banned
Undyne_ · 5 games
80%

Invictus Gaming

No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
225 picks · 101 bans
52%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
224 picks · 262 bans
52%
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spirit
222 picks · 270 bans
52%
Pangolier
Pangolier
191 picks · 411 bans
53%
Treant Protector
Treant Protector
190 picks · 408 bans
64%
Phoenix
Phoenix
188 picks · 249 bans
47%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
173 picks · 272 bans
47%
Sven
Sven
172 picks · 251 bans
57%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)73% vs 50%
Hero pool strength52% Invictus Gaming
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total80% Invictus Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct5:27
Team Bright 20%Invictus Gaming 80%
The model gave 80% on Invictus Gaming — the game was taken by Invictus Gaming in 22:32.
Game 2prediction correct31:25
Team Bright 20%Invictus Gaming 80%
The model gave 80% on Invictus Gaming — the game was taken by Invictus Gaming in 38:52.
Model check result
Model favoriteInvictus Gaming · 80%
Series resultInvictus Gaming 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2